[Abridged] The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part III: Tracepalooza & the Bezzle
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NVIDIA is benefitting from strong demand, but is selling into a concentrated set of buyers whose demand is being distorted by a training phase that will not last. Distorted demand is working like a bullwhip into NVIDIA’s own supply chain through custom supply commitments as well as downstream through data-center financing.
Customer concentration is off the charts. If Microsoft cuts capital expenditure on NVDA chips 20%, that is a 4.2% revenue hit to NVIDIA. Supplier concentration too. NVIDIA is committing to custom lines at TSMC and funding them, now with $119 billion, non-cancellable. Total forward non-cancellable commitments at NVIDIA amount to $182 billion, greater than NVIDIA’s prodigious annual operating cash flow.
Of course, Microsoft has been buying chips faster than it can deploy them. For the first time, however, Microsoft’s percentage of NVIDIA’s Accounts Receivable rose significantly as its percentage of Nvidia’s revenue fell.