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Michael Burry·Cassandra Unchained (Michael Burry Substack)·Substack·2026.06.19

Trading Post June 18, 2026

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English Original

This is essentially dollar cost averaging to reduce average price as an investment falls.

It is a perfectly reasonable method with a well-understood investment. As are dividend reinvestment programs. All that stuff works!

My more stringent approach is to wait until a stock has fallen 20% from my purchase price to space it out more and prevent spending myself out at too high a price.

These cases are all rapidly falling knives.

Falling knife stocks are stocks that are down a lot, typically but not always in steep fashion, without any technical support anywhere nearby.

Volume can help guide as to whether there has been enough turnover in shares to signal the shareholder base has shifted to new hands at the lower price. Presumably, these would be steadier hands, having not the psychological trauma from the biggest part of the fall.

If I see volume confirmation, it helps. Stabbing at a falling knife is dangerous in the short run, but if the analysis and the volume tell me I am closer to a bottom, I will dollar cost average in without waiting for the 20% drop from my purchase price.

Today was another day where semiconductors and big tech led the way. Nearly all else was less popular.

Below, AI-related companies.

Here, semiconductors.

Software was more a mixed bag.

Today’s Trades

I bought Mercado Libre (MELI) at about $1,630. The stock is down 39% from its June 2025 high, and has traded about 246% of its shares outstanding over the last year.

Read more