Letters · Memos · Substack
Letters, memos, interviews, and curated posts from Wall Street gurus and crypto whales. Updated daily.
The Age Of Free Food Delivery: Manna Air Delivery With Bobby Healy
In this episode of FYI, Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire sit down with Bobby Healy, founder and CEO of Manna, to examine the rapidly expanding drone delivery market. Bobby explains how Manna’s autonomous aircraft can deliver food and other goods within minutes, why its hot-swap ar…
SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 + Kimi K3 Freakout | The Brainstorm 142
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Tasha Keeney, Nicholas Grous, and Brett Winton uncover how SpaceX's latest Starship test flight is revolutionizing space travel, slashing launch costs, and how this potentially unlocks new commercial opportunities. Plus, a deep dive into AI’s ra…
#518: Tesla Remained Patient On Robotaxi And Optimus While Its AI Ambitions Grew With Megapod, & More
During its second-quarter earnings call last week, Tesla’s management was cautious in projecting the scaling of unsupervised robotaxis, noting that its service is live in seven cities and expanding one city at a time as it prioritizes safety.
Can China’s Kimi K3 Beat OpenAI, Anthropic, And Grok? | The Brainstorm 141
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Sam and Nick are joined by Frank Downing to discuss the shifting future of AI models. Most AI companies are focusing on smarter models, but the real game-changer may be how efficiently we run them — and how that shifts market power. When the big…
The DeFi Quarterly: Q2 2026
The DeFi Quarterly Q2 2026 report includes sections on stablecoins, RWAs, tokenization, network and application economics, decentralized exchanges, lending protocols, prediction market growth against other crypto primitives, and market pulse.
#517: Prediction Markets Are Moving Beyond Sports, & More
Last week, Kalshi reinforced the case we made in our most recent article, “Prediction Markets: The Potential Multi Trillion Dollar Asset Class Hiding In Plain Sight.” Prediction markets represent a new layer of global financial infrastructure that we believe is likely to enhance …
The Bitcoin Quarterly: Q2 2026
The Bitcoin Quarterly Q2 2026 report includes market summary, on-chain activity and technicals, ETFs, Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), derivatives, liquidity, and macroeconomics.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): ARK's Stock Stories
AMD had nearly zero server CPU market share in 2017. By Q1 2026, they controlled 46% of server CPU revenue. Frank Downing, ARK's Director of Research, AI and Cloud, breaks down why AMD is now running the same playbook against NVIDIA in AI accelerators.
The Falling Cost Of Entrepreneurship
The cost of starting a business has declined in three distinct waves. First was the shift from offline to online commerce, which eliminated geography as a constraint. Second was the emergence of companies like Shopify, which bundled payments, logistics, and capital into a unified…
How Businesses Can Gamify Loyalty With Lucra's Dylan Robbins
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton hosts Dylan Robbins, founder and CEO of Lucra Sports, to discuss how white-label gamification is reshaping brand loyalty. Dylan traces Lucra's evolution from a peer-to-peer sports betting app built at Stanford Business School into an enterpris…
What Is The Best AI Model In 2026? | The Brainstorm 140
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Sam, and Nick are joined by Frank Downing to break down how OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and X are competing on performance, pricing, and deployment strategy as the AI market gets more efficient. Frank Downing explains why the economics of AI…
#516: Operation Trailblazer: HHS Moves To Accelerate Drug Development As China Gains Ground, & More
Last month, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced Operation Trailblazer, including a coordinated package of reforms to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's (FDA’s) Investigational New Drug (IND) application process, intended to reduce the time and co…
Did Tesla Just Release The “Perfect" Car? | The Brainstorm 139
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett and Sam are joined by Daniel Maguire to discuss Tesla’s Model Y L and what it could mean for family buyers and robotaxi strategy, plus Rocket Lab’s acquisition of Iridium and the growing importance of satellite bandwidth and launch capacit…
This Jobs Report Screams Recession. Why We Disagree | ITK With Cathie Wood
In this month's "In The Know”, Cathie Wood breaks down Kevin Warsh’s five task forces to overhaul the Fed, from quieting the daily chatter of Fed governors to cross-checking distorted government statistics against private data. She explains why Trueflation’s real-time reading of …
SpaceX Starfall And Apple Price Hikes | The Brainstorm 138
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Sam, and Nick discuss SpaceX’s Starfall, a new orbital delivery concept that could move cargo anywhere on Earth at extraordinary speed and open up new possibilities for military logistics and space manufacturing. The team also breaks down…
From Robotaxis To Humanoids: Why Embodied AI Represents An Order-Of-Magnitude Leap Into The Future
Today’s humanoid robot capability certainly seems limited relative to its potential. According to our research, humanoid systems could prove transformational for the modern workforce as they expand automation into labor-constrained sectors such as logistics, manufacturing, health…
#515: Are Prediction Markets Going Mainstream Again?, & More
Is the boom in prediction markets structural or the result of momentary catalysts? Hosted across the US, Canada, and Mexico, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is the latest test. The notional volume of prediction markets hit an all-time high of $13 billion, or ~$675 billion at an annual ra…
A Guide To Stablecoins: Multi-Collateral-Backed Stablecoins—DAI, USDS
This article focuses on the stablecoin category called “Multi-Collateral-Backed Stablecoins” and delves into how reserves are managed, how yield and incentives are distributed, how accessible and integrated the tokens are, and how governance and compliance influence their resilie…
Some Of The Smartest World Cup Bets Weren't In Sportsbooks | The Brainstorm 137
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Sam, and Nick explore the future of prediction markets, cutting-edge medical AI, and the surprising power of global events to reshape financialization. You’ll discover how the World Cup has catapulted prediction markets into the spotlight…
SpaceX IPO, Anthropic Fable 5, And Roku | The Brainstorm EP 136
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Sam, and Nick explore how SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) could revolutionize the space and satellite industries, with Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar vision focusing on Starlink satellites and AI orbital data centers. They discuss the…
Betting On The Unconventional With Draper Associates’ Andy Tang
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton and Chase Prather host Andy Tang, partner at Draper Associates, to discuss how venture capital is evolving alongside AI, deep tech, and shifting market dynamics. Andy reflects on his 20-year investing career, the growing importance of AI-nativ…
#514: SpaceXAI Launches, & More
In its heavily anticipated initial public offering (IPO), SpaceX issued $75 billion worth of new shares the largest IPO of all time. Appreciating to more than $2 trillion in equity market cap, a lofty valuation relative to backward-looking financials, investors have focused on it…
Apple WWDC, Siri AI, And SpaceX Data Centers | The Brainstorm EP 135
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett and Nick discuss Apple's latest AI strategy announced at the 2026 WWDC event, including a major Siri upgrade. They explore how Apple's integration of Gemini models and on-device capabilities could transform Siri into a deeply personal AI c…
#513: Kalshi Launches Perpetuals As Robinhood’s Rothera Exchange Goes Live, & More
Kalshi's launch of perpetual futures marks a watershed moment for the structure of the US crypto market. For the first time, US investors can access a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated perpetual contract, a product that has dominated international crypto tradi…
Booming Jobs Report, Plummeting Market: What's Going On? | ITK With Cathie Wood
In this month's "In The Know," ARK Invest CEO and CIO Cathie Wood makes the case that the economy is entering boom territory. Her framework: productivity (not the Phillips curve) is driving this cycle, inflation breaks to the downside and could go negative this year, new Federal …
Don’t Die: Humanity’s Future With Bryan Johnson
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton, Cathie Wood, and Charlie Roberts sit down with Bryan Johnson, founder of Blueprint and creator of Braintree. They explore his pursuit of extending human life and the broader philosophical shift toward valuing existence itself. Bryan shares th…
SpaceX And Blue Origin’s ‘Boom’ | The Brainstorm EP 134
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam are joined by Daniel Maguire to discuss Blue Origin's recent rocket explosion, which has sparked a pivotal discussion on the future of space launch dominance and AI infrastructure investments. They explore how industry giants…
#512: Blue Origin Explosion Highlights Launch Capacity Constraints In Race To The Moon, & More
Last week, ahead of its fourth mission, Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket exploded during a test fire at its launch site in Florida. The explosion severely damaged Launch Complex 36, Blue Origin’s only operational orbital launch pad for New Glenn. While the company is building addit…
What Quantum Means For Bitcoin’s Future
In this episode of Bitcoin Brainstorm, Rod Roudi is joined by Cathie Wood, Adam Back, Hunter Beast, Rob Hamilton, Ren Crypto Fish, and David Puell for a deep discussion on quantum computing and its implications for Bitcoin. The group examines the technical, financial, and governa…
SpaceX IPO Story Is Bigger Than Rockets | The Brainstorm EP 133
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam are joined by Daniel Maguire and Tasha Keeney to discuss the expected June 12th initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX. SpaceX’s recently filed S-1 revealed a significant opportunity across launch, Starlink, AI compute, and …
#511: Anthropic Is Paying $1.25 Billion Per Month To Access SpaceX’s Compute Capacity, & More
Anthropic paying SpaceX, longevity research including GLP-1s, AI's first autonomous mathematical breakthrough, and Anthropic's announcement about investing in special purpose vehicles.
Quantum Risk And Bitcoin: Preparing For A Post-Quantum World
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton is joined by David Puell, Nic Carter, and Alex Pruden to examine the potential risks quantum computing poses to Bitcoin. The group explores how advances in quantum technology could compromise cryptographic security, what a “broken” Bitcoin sys…
The Longevity Shift: Valuing The Extension Of Healthy Human Life
Our ability to quantify biological aging has improved markedly. Functional performance metrics, molecular biomarkers, multiomics data, and continuous digital signals now can measure what clinicians once inferred almost entirely from chronological age. These tools do not imply tha…
Hyperliquid And SpaceX Synthetic Trading | The Brainstorm EP 132
Hyperliquid is revolutionizing global markets with its innovative blockchain, facilitating $3 trillion in annual volume and rivaling giants like Binance. In this episode, Lorenzo Valente reveals how hyperliquid's cutting-edge technology and products like perpetual futures are dem…
#510: SpaceX Targets Starship Flight Test 12 Ahead Of Expected IPO Filing This Week, & More
This week, SpaceX is targeting its twelfth Starship flight test, debuting its next-generation Starship (V3) and Super Heavy booster as well as upgraded Raptor engines and a redesigned Starbase launch pad. The test comes amid reports that SpaceX could file its prospectus as soon a…
SpaceX And Anthropic Partnership | The Brainstorm EP 131
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Frank and Sam explore the groundbreaking deal between SpaceX and Anthropic, focusing on the implications for AI compute infrastructure, space-based data centers, and the economics behind data centers.
#509: Shopify Is Building The Operating System For Agentic Commerce, & More
Last week, Shopify reported another strong quarter, with Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) increasing 35% year-over-year and surpassing $100 billion, while revenue increased 34%. Although investors focused on softer-than-expected near-term guidance, specifically revenue growth at a …
A 30-Year Pattern Reversed: Inflation & AI Outlook | ITK With Cathie Wood
In this month's "In The Know," ARK Invest CEO/CIO Cathie Wood lays out a framework where we believe inflation surprises lower (not higher), the dollar rallies (not crashes), the rolling recession ends, AI drives structural deflation the bond market is only starting to price, and …
From Binance To Beyond: CZ Predicts Crypto’s Next Phase
In this episode of FYI, Lorenzo Valente sits down with ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and Changpeng Zhao (CZ), founder of Binance, to examine his journey from early life in China to building the world’s largest crypto exchange. CZ shares how Binance scaled rapidly, the regulatory cha…
Megacap Recap | The Brainstorm EP 130
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam offer a comprehensive analysis of mega-cap tech companies, focusing on CapEx trends, AI integration, user engagement, and market demand. They discuss Meta's AI strategies, cloud spending, and the evolving landscape of digital…
#508: Robinhood Is Handing Customers And Investors A 'Gold'en Opportunity, & More
Last week, Robinhood reported first-quarter results with softer-than-expected transaction revenues, the result of weak trading activity. In our view, the more important story was and is Gold, Robinhood's $5 per month subscription tier and—increasingly—the gateway to its ecosystem…
$60 Billion SpaceX Cursor Deal? | The Brainstorm EP 129
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam explore how AI is reshaping technology, from coding to consumer devices, and how SpaceX's acquisition of Cursor at a $60 billion valuation could redefine the future of technology. They delve into the strategic layers of AI, r…
Stationary Energy Storage Could Become The Backbone Of The Modern Grid
Surging demand from AI data centers and the gradual electrification of transportation are adding pressure to the US grid, but the solution might already exist. ARK's research suggests that stationary energy storage, paired with existing underutilized generation, could unlock late…
#507: A New Executive Order Is The Latest Catalyst Clearing The Path For Psychedelic Therapies, & More
On April 18, President Trump signed an Executive Order directing the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to issue Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers (CNPVs) to psychedelic drugs with Breakthrough Therapy designation, a mechanism that can compress FDA review timelines f…
The DeFi Quarterly: Q1 2026
The DeFi Quarterly Q1 2026 report includes sections on stablecoins, RWAs, tokenization, network and application economics, decentralized exchanges, lending protocols, HIP-3 markets, and market pulse.
The Token Economy: AI Infrastructure And The Future Of Compute
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton and Charles Roberts sit down with Michael Stewart of M12, Microsoft’s venture fund, to examine how AI is reshaping software, infrastructure, and investment strategy. Michael explains how M12 identifies emerging signals across the AI ecosystem,…
Prediction Markets: The Potential Multi‑Trillion Dollar Asset Class Hiding In Plain Sight
In a world where trust in information is breaking down, prediction markets offer a model for truth discovery backed by capital, not opinion. Beyond their early traction in sports, we believe predication markets’ real potential will come from their instantiation as the future of f…
Verifying Humanity In An AI World | The Brainstorm EP 128
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam explore the emerging landscape of digital identity verification, focusing on World ID and its implications for online security, business models, and advertising. They discuss the technical challenges, regulatory hurdles, and …
#506: Technology Giants Are Accelerating The Convergence Between AI And Biology, & More
Some of the world's largest technology companies are making substantial moves into the life sciences space through acquisitions, platform launches, partnerships, and board appointments that are signaling the deepening convergence between AI and biology. In our view, relative to a…
The Bitcoin Quarterly: Q1 2026
The Bitcoin Quarterly Q1 2026 report includes market summary, on-chain activity and technicals, ETFs, Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), derivatives, liquidity, and macroeconomics.
Mythos And AI Safety | The Brainstorm EP 127
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam explore the latest developments in AI models like Mythos, the strategic moves of companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta, and the future of social networks in an AI-driven world. They discuss the implications of AI safety,…
#505: Patent Cliffs And Pipeline Gaps Are Driving A Structural Bid For Biotech, & More
Biopharma mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are heating up. In March alone, biopharma companies announced ten acquisitions worth ~$31.5 billion, including two deals exceeding $5 billion each in upfront payments.
April 9, 2026 — In The Know With Cathie Wood
On the April episode of ITK, ARK CEO/CIO Cathie Wood dives into the unexpected divergence between the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), revealing that while consumer inflation seems to be slowing, producer prices are rising, excluding food and energy. Thi…
SpaceX To The Moon | The Brainstorm EP 126
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam explore the transformative impact of public and private space initiatives, focusing on how NASA's missions and SpaceX's innovations are accelerating progress toward lunar bases and Mars colonies. Discover the economic implica…
Kalshi Beats Consensus | The Brainstorm EP 125
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Nick and Sam are joined by Nicole Kagan, Head of Research at Kalshi. They discuss how prediction markets could revolutionize risk management across every industry you can imagine. From macroeconomic trends to cultural phenomena, she's uncovering…
#504: Elon Musk Unveils Terafab, A Chip Fab That Will Impact SpaceX, xAI, And Tesla, & More
Last week, Elon Musk unveiled his plans for a “Terafab”—a facility capable of producing 1 terawatt (TW) of AI chips per year when complete and ~50x larger than current global available new compute in a single site. The facility could scale to ~100M square feet, ~3x the size of Ne…
Terafab: Elon’s Plan To Dominate Semiconductors | The Brainstorm EP 124
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick, and Sam delve into Elon Musk's ambitious Terafab project, a revolutionary semiconductor manufacturing facility poised to transform the future of AI and space infrastructure. Discover how Musk's strategy integrates energy, manufactur…
The State Of AI Infrastructure: Demand, Costs, And Custom Silicon
Demand for accelerated compute has exploded in the three years since the launch of ChatGPT. Nvidia’s annual revenue has soared nearly 8-fold, from $27 billion in 2022 to $216 billion in 2025, with consensus estimates up another 62% to $350 billion in 2026.