Letters · Memos · Substack
Letters, memos, interviews, and curated posts from Wall Street gurus and crypto whales. Updated daily.
Trading Post June 12, 2026
The market continues to punish the stocks of large, well-established businesses with significant owners earnings, little debt, and large buybacks, which are accretive to intrinsic value per share at current levels. It is not hard to find these at less than 10x earnings, whether g…
Trading Post June 8, 2026
Some stocks are backed by businesses so good that the time to buy is defined by a simple, recurring rule. Samsung Electronics is the belle of the ball these days. Just last year, however, it traded extensively at tangible book value. When Samsung Electronics stock hits tangible b…
Trading Post June 5, 2026
The lululemon athletica (LULU) earnings call was uninspiring as expected. That was interim co-CEOs defined. No new information. Gross margins fell 330 basis points (bps), mostly tariffs at -380 bps offset by +100 bps of cost cutting, then marked down b…-40 bps of markdowns.…
MEGA Trading Post/Short Thoughts Mash-Up June 2, 2026
The wonderful people that Cassandra Unchained’s subscriber Chat discussions have gathered is unique among discussion boards in my experience. The elevated tenor and many expert opinions, as well as the gentle treatment of each other, reminds me of the early days on techstoc…
Short Thoughts May 29, 2026
Part IV of the Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars is coming along nicely. In light of the news today about Apollo’s $38 billion debt raise for Google’s TPUs (not NVIDIA’s GPUs) for Anthropic, I have decided to pre-release one visual from Part IV. No expla…
[Abridged] Software & Payments Stocks Part II: Productivity Tools and Cybersecurity
Since Part 1, I added four names – Synopsys (SNPS), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), JFrog (FROG) and Samsara (IOT) – so the Cassandra Unchained software and payments universe is now 50 stocks. First a trading update: Yesterday I rolled my SOXX and QQQ puts at a debit, …
Software & Payments Stocks Part II: Productivity Tools and Cybersecurity
Since Part 1, I added four names – Synopsys (SNPS), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), JFrog (FROG) and Samsara (IOT) – so the Cassandra Unchained software and payments universe is now 50 stocks, the SW50. I tugged around the publishing order, so this Part 2 will cover Pr…
Short Thoughts May 25, 2026
My whole life, patterns have spoken to me. Not the patterns surrounding me while visiting the local fabric store with my Mom back in the 1970s. For some reason, those patterns screamed and filled my head with pressure. I could not wait to get outside. Kids growing up in 70s and e…
[Abridged] The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part III: Tracepalooza & the Bezzle
NVIDIA is benefitting from strong demand, but is selling into a concentrated set of buyers whose demand is being distorted by a training phase that will not last. Distorted demand is working like a bullwhip into NVIDIA’s own supply chain through custom supply commitments as…
The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part III: Tracepalooza & the Bezzle
“They are just flying empty airplanes around.” - Son NVIDIA is the North Star, Orion, the whole Milky Way. NVIDIA is benefitting from strong demand, but is selling into a concentrated set of buyers whose own demand is being distorted by a training and benchmarking pha…
Trading Post May 18, 2026
Trading Post Monday May 18, 2025 This chart is interesting. From 2022 to 2025, the stock rallied, while the price to sales ratio – the green line – remained flat. Without knowing the symbol, one knows that stock has been a fast top-line grower, and one knows that this…
National Brain Tumor Society - May 2026
The National Brain Tumor Society is the Cassandra Unchained Charity of the Month for May 2026 , because for 30 years it has been unrelentingly investing in and uniting the brain tumor community to discover cures and effective treatments and advocate for both patients and caregive…
D'ai of the Triffids: Office Software Triage (Abridged Version)
[ What follows is an abridged ~1500 word summary of the full D’ai of the Triffids: Office Software Triage post available here . This is the first part in a six-part series covering 46 software and payments stocks . The full version has ~11,000 more words and several more vi…
D'ai of the Triffids: Office Software Triage
Software investors witnessed the stunning arrival of AI with awe and inspiration. Last summer, after an inexplicably unrecognized multi-year gestation, the carnivorous nature of this new technology become clear. Investors in common stocks of companies thought to lead in AI implem…
Trading Post May 12, 2026
This Trading Post covers mostly yesterday’s trades Today, a number of stocks are reacting to earnings releases. QUBT +24.2%, PACS +20.1%, SIBN +16.4%, TE +16.1%, HLIT +14.7%, DSP +13.6%, ZBRA +13.4%, SE +10.6%, CDNL +10%, EIKN +8.8% (also provides clinical updates), VG +8.8…
Short Thoughts May 10, 2026
The boy who cried wolf. So many times, no wolf. In the end, what happened? There was a wolf. But nobody was listening. I am now a meme for the number of times I have called a crash. I have become the boy who cried wolf. History is written not by the victors, but by those that con…
Trading Post Friday May 8, 2026
Huge rally in stocks today. Very much more of the same. Yellow is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, up ~224% since the 90 Day Pause. Violet is the S&P 500, up 48%, and the NASDAQ 100, up 69%. Headlines says stocks are up due to a strong jobs report. You tell me what is more d…
Trading Post May 7, 2026
Today I sold my positions in CRM and ADSK at small profits. Both were smallish positions and, per my evaluation not nearly as good long-term investments as what I needed to buy today. Read more
Trading Post Wednesday May 6, 2026
The NASDAQ 100 was up over 500 points today to another all-time high, and before that, Jonathan Krinsky with BTIG posted this chart. Per Jonathan: If we look at the top 10 performing NDX stocks in 1999, they were up an average of 559%. The top 10 in the year leading up to 3/24/00…
Trading Post Tuesday May 5, 2026
Late in the session today, the U.S. announced Operation Epic Fury is concluded, and that offensive operations against Iran have ended. Rather surprising given recent news of imminent ground operations. The market took it in stride, barely missing a beat as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ …
Trading Post Monday May 4, 2026
First, tending to the shorts. I added to my SOXX January 2027 Strike 330 Puts in the $14s. Even the logarithmic chart looks stretched. What a rally, a true cherry on top of a decade+ explosive run. The components of the SOXX are below. I am happy being short every single one of t…
GameStop Makes Its Play
Makes perfect sense. Never confuse debt for creativity. When hundreds of billions are on the table, bet on craven greed. So the rumor was confirmed less than 48 hours after it was leaked. The Wall Street Journal reports GameStop is offering to buy eBay for $56 billion. Again, as …
Short Thoughts May 2, 2026
As Berkshire Hathaway shareholders descend on Omaha for the company’s first annual meeting without Warren Buffett, the WSJ reports that GameStop is preparing a bid for eBay. Citing anonymous people close to the matter, the Journal also reported that GameStop has been acquir…
Trading Post Wednesday April 29, 2026
Still working hard on the software article. I am in that phase where I am continuously auditing the rankings and making sure all is where it should be. I have about 20,000 words I need to cut down, and a lot of nice visuals, some of which may need to be adjusted. Read more
Trading Post Friday April 24, 2026
Trading Post Friday April 24, 2026 Big news today is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, also known as the SOX. It is an index going straight up. Remarkable. Moreso, Intel of all companies is leading the way. I have been active today. Read more
Trading Post Thursday April 23, 2026
Software stocks sold off hard today on some earnings news from IBM and ServiceNow that investors took as indicative of an AI threat. I’m starting to feel like the the software and payments stock post I have been working on and will publish early next week will be rather tim…
Trading Post Wednesday, April 22, 2026
Markets do not make needle tops. They never have. If the market is going to put in a top, there is a lot of work to be done. The easiest path has been up since the new highs. It may take a few months or into the heat of election season for stocks to get that new top in. This is n…
Trading Post Wednesday April 15, 2026
Despite the recent bounce, software stocks remain interesting because of accelerated extreme declines last week arising from a reflexive positive feedback loop between falling software stocks and changes in the market for their bank debt. I do not believe the technical pressures …
Trading Post Monday April 13th
The reflexivity between software credit and software stocks has been a main driver of negative returns this past several months, culminating in a deep sell-off last week. This is a powerful technical factor driving down software stock valuations but is temporary. The credit side …
Trading Post April 10, 2026
This is the second trading alert today. There may be more than one a day, and there will be plenty of days with none. I will not spam you with Trading Alerts. As well I decided to change the name to Trading Post . Please let me know how this format is working for you. 1. I believ…
Trade Alert Friday April 10, 2026
As you know, I have been short Palantir since the fall, through puts as expressed in two articles: Palantir's New Clothes and Palantir: An Accounting . I have rolled these several times. I now own the June 17, 2027 Strike Price 50 Puts and the December 18, 2026 Strike Price 100 P…
New Feature: Dr. Burry's Trade Alerts!
Greetings from Cassandra Unchained! Thank you for your feedback. We heard your concerns about timeliness of and security of trade notifications and have implemented your suggestion. Trade Alerts are here. To ensure exclusive distribution of Dr. Burry’s trades to all paid su…
April 2026 Charity - Joyful Heart Foundation
I am happy to announce Joyful Heart Foundation as the April 2026 CU Charity of the Month. Five percent of top line revenues from this Substack for the month of April will go to The Joyful Heart Foundation, and I hope others will spread the word and donate as well. The Joyful Hear…
AP SBC: The Tragic Algebra Recurrence
Jump down to the Abridged Summary GAAP stands for Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Such principles are fine for most things, and on the other things, in a pinch, they are certainly better than Wall Street’s principles. Finding the true economic owners’ earnin…
The Toxic Twins Recurrence: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac
Every time I find myself in a position where it seems it just has been too much to take and every fiber in my being is screaming, “Just close the position, just end it,” I remember all the many, many times in my study of market history where I pointed to a spectacular…
Hong Kong Stocks: Structure & Strategy, Part 2
For the first time, readers will find at the bottom of the normal in-depth, detailed main post a shorter, more compact summary of the main article. This will be the format going forward. While the main post will be the typical 5000-10,000 words with 10-25 visuals, the end-of- pos…