Letters · Memos · Substack
Letters, memos, interviews, and curated posts from Wall Street gurus and crypto whales. Updated daily.
The Age Of Free Food Delivery: Manna Air Delivery With Bobby Healy
In this episode of FYI, Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire sit down with Bobby Healy, founder and CEO of Manna, to examine the rapidly expanding drone delivery market. Bobby explains how Manna’s autonomous aircraft can deliver food and other goods within minutes, why its hot-swap ar…
SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 + Kimi K3 Freakout | The Brainstorm 142
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Tasha Keeney, Nicholas Grous, and Brett Winton uncover how SpaceX's latest Starship test flight is revolutionizing space travel, slashing launch costs, and how this potentially unlocks new commercial opportunities. Plus, a deep dive into AI’s ra…
Debt is the Bet
Debt is the Bet What happens when debt gets more expensive? 29 Jul 2026 Newsletter I’m the king of debt. I’m great with debt. Nobody knows debt better than me. -Donald Trump 1 A few weeks ago, we discussed the ongoing “rates debate” in terms of whether the new Federal Reserve cha…
#518: Tesla Remained Patient On Robotaxi And Optimus While Its AI Ambitions Grew With Megapod, & More
During its second-quarter earnings call last week, Tesla’s management was cautious in projecting the scaling of unsupervised robotaxis, noting that its service is live in seven cities and expanding one city at a time as it prioritizes safety.
Cyera and Oasis: Stronger Together
Cyera and Oasis: Stronger Together Danny, Amit, Yotam, Tamar, Yonatan and their teams are joining forces to build a complete security platform for the age of AI. By Bogomil Balkansky and Doug Leone Published July 28, 2026 In 2021, before Oasis Security was even founded, I sat dow…
America’s Open-Model Paradox
America’s Open-Model Paradox To Distill, or Not to Distill? By Dean Meyer and Konstantine Buhler Published July 24, 2026 To Distill, or Not to Distill? China increasingly supplies the models Western companies use to serve, train, and build AI. Qwen’s share of new open-model fine-…
Why the case for value investing remains strong
For fifteen years, growth has dominated and value has faced real headwinds — leading many to conclude the discipline itself is outdated. We disagree. In this piece, we make the case that value investing hasn’t failed; it’s evolved. Read the full paper . This material …
Partnering with Etched: Building the Inference Machine
Partnering with Etched: Building the Inference Machine Gavin, Rob, Chris and the Etched team are building frontier clusters for inference, maximizing the intelligence per flop that humanity can consume. By Sonya Huang and Abhishek Malani Published July 23, 2026 Inference is on th…
Oakmark Capital Gain Tax Estimates
Capital gain distributions will be paid to shareholders of record as of Wednesday, December 09, 2026. Important dates to note are as follows: Record date: December 09, 2026 Ex-dividend date: December 10, 2026 Pay date: December 11, 2026 Please note that the 2026 capital gain dist…
Can China’s Kimi K3 Beat OpenAI, Anthropic, And Grok? | The Brainstorm 141
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Sam and Nick are joined by Frank Downing to discuss the shifting future of AI models. Most AI companies are focusing on smarter models, but the real game-changer may be how efficiently we run them — and how that shifts market power. When the big…
Schrödinger’s Market
Schrödinger’s Market Energy scarcity, tech euphoria, and opportunity amid the market’s contradictions 22 Jul 2026 CIO Perspectives “If a man never contradicts himself, the reason must be that he virtually never says anything at all.” -Erwin Schrödinger Key Takeaways M…
Refinery Crack Spreads Hit New Highs
Refinery Crack Spreads Hit New Highs Are energy profits heating up? 22 Jul 2026 Newsletter Watch Josh Snyder, CFA, Global Investment Strategist, as he explains how crack spreads measure the profitability of turning crude oil into gasoline and diesel. He explores why record-high s…
Smokin’ Crack…Spreads!
Smokin’ Crack…Spreads! Are energy profits heating up? 22 Jul 2026 Newsletter Watch Josh Snyder, CFA, Global Investment Strategist, as he explains how crack spreads measure the profitability of turning crude oil into gasoline and diesel. He explores why record-high spreads could s…
The DeFi Quarterly: Q2 2026
The DeFi Quarterly Q2 2026 report includes sections on stablecoins, RWAs, tokenization, network and application economics, decentralized exchanges, lending protocols, prediction market growth against other crypto primitives, and market pulse.
#517: Prediction Markets Are Moving Beyond Sports, & More
Last week, Kalshi reinforced the case we made in our most recent article, “Prediction Markets: The Potential Multi Trillion Dollar Asset Class Hiding In Plain Sight.” Prediction markets represent a new layer of global financial infrastructure that we believe is likely to enhance …
The Bitcoin Quarterly: Q2 2026
The Bitcoin Quarterly Q2 2026 report includes market summary, on-chain activity and technicals, ETFs, Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), derivatives, liquidity, and macroeconomics.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): ARK's Stock Stories
AMD had nearly zero server CPU market share in 2017. By Q1 2026, they controlled 46% of server CPU revenue. Frank Downing, ARK's Director of Research, AI and Cloud, breaks down why AMD is now running the same playbook against NVIDIA in AI accelerators.
Partnering with Bunkerhill Health: AI Agents that Improve Patient Outcomes
Partnering with Bunkerhill Health: AI Agents that Improve Patient Outcomes Nish Khandwala and David Eng are building the AI agent platform to serve every function across the health system: clinical, operational, and administrative. By Alfred Lin Published July 16, 2026 David and …
There’s a New Sheriff in Town
The second quarter saw the S&P 500 advance 15.2% after its first-quarter pullback, leaving the index up 10.2% year-to-date. More than 80% of the S&P 500’s return this year has come from ten AI beneficiaries, representing exceptionally thin market leadership within the i…
Finding Value in a Momentum Market
As the Iran War moved towards a peace settlement, the marketplace celebrated by rushing back into longer duration equities. During Q2, momentum stocks led the equity market with one of the factor’s strongest quarterly returns, up more than 40%! As we highlighted in previous lette…
Partnering with Sable: Closing the Diffusion Gap
Partnering with Sable: Closing the Diffusion Gap Nim, Leon, Linda and Itamar are building an AI employee powered by real-time computer use and vision. By Shaun Maguire Published July 16, 2026 Leon, Nim, Linda and Itamar. The frontier of AI is moving at a pace most of the economy …
The Falling Cost Of Entrepreneurship
The cost of starting a business has declined in three distinct waves. First was the shift from offline to online commerce, which eliminated geography as a constraint. Second was the emergence of companies like Shopify, which bundled payments, logistics, and capital into a unified…
How Businesses Can Gamify Loyalty With Lucra's Dylan Robbins
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton hosts Dylan Robbins, founder and CEO of Lucra Sports, to discuss how white-label gamification is reshaping brand loyalty. Dylan traces Lucra's evolution from a peer-to-peer sports betting app built at Stanford Business School into an enterpris…
What Is The Best AI Model In 2026? | The Brainstorm 140
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Sam, and Nick are joined by Frank Downing to break down how OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and X are competing on performance, pricing, and deployment strategy as the AI market gets more efficient. Frank Downing explains why the economics of AI…
The Great Rates Debate
The Great Rates Debate Could the market be calling the Fed’s next move? 15 Jul 2026 Newsletter Since becoming a central banker, I have learned to mumble with great incoherence. If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said. -Alan Greenspan 1 Alan Greenspa…
#516: Operation Trailblazer: HHS Moves To Accelerate Drug Development As China Gains Ground, & More
Last month, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced Operation Trailblazer, including a coordinated package of reforms to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's (FDA’s) Investigational New Drug (IND) application process, intended to reduce the time and co…
Did Tesla Just Release The “Perfect" Car? | The Brainstorm 139
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett and Sam are joined by Daniel Maguire to discuss Tesla’s Model Y L and what it could mean for family buyers and robotaxi strategy, plus Rocket Lab’s acquisition of Iridium and the growing importance of satellite bandwidth and launch capacit…
Wegovy, Wings, and Wishful Thinking
Wegovy, Wings, and Wishful Thinking What if the better signal is in the stands, not the forecast? 08 Jul 2026 Newsletter The reports of my death were an exaggeration. -Mark Twain 1 Few subjects over the last few years—other than AI—have made headlines and captured hearts and wais…
2Q 2026 GQG Investor Update
2Q 2026 GQG Investor Update 21 Jul 2026 Webcasts Views and opinions are expressed as of 21 July 2026. There may be additional risks associated with international and emerging markets investing involving foreign, economic, political, monetary, and/or legal factors. International i…
Punching Above Your Weight
Punching Above Your Weight When should markets fear what sports celebrate? 02 Jul 2026 Newsletter FIFA’s World Cup does strange things to people. It turns otherwise rational adults into patriotic statisticians, armed with selective arithmetic and a deep belief that one good resul…
This Jobs Report Screams Recession. Why We Disagree | ITK With Cathie Wood
In this month's "In The Know”, Cathie Wood breaks down Kevin Warsh’s five task forces to overhaul the Fed, from quieting the daily chatter of Fed governors to cross-checking distorted government statistics against private data. She explains why Trueflation’s real-time reading of …
SpaceX Starfall And Apple Price Hikes | The Brainstorm 138
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Sam, and Nick discuss SpaceX’s Starfall, a new orbital delivery concept that could move cargo anywhere on Earth at extraordinary speed and open up new possibilities for military logistics and space manufacturing. The team also breaks down…
From Robotaxis To Humanoids: Why Embodied AI Represents An Order-Of-Magnitude Leap Into The Future
Today’s humanoid robot capability certainly seems limited relative to its potential. According to our research, humanoid systems could prove transformational for the modern workforce as they expand automation into labor-constrained sectors such as logistics, manufacturing, health…
The Intrinsic Value of Bitcoin
I recently had the opportunity to listen to a talk from an “A-list” entrepreneur in cybersecurity. Given his background and knowledge of cryptography, my hand was the first to shoot up at question time to ask about one of my favorite things — Bitcoin. “It has no intri…
The discipline to stay boring | U.S. equity market commentary 2Q 2026
“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” — Paul Samuelson, Nobel Prize winning economist Before writing these quarterly commentaries, I always reread my most recent editions. Unfortunately, much of wh…
Wrong in the right direction | International equity market commentary 2Q 2026
The second quarter reflected a continuation of what we saw in the first quarter in most respects. The one notable exception is oil. As the U.S. neared a compromise with Iran, oil prices have returned to within a few dollars per barrel of where they were before the war broke out. …
The certainty trap | Fixed income market commentary 2Q 2026
Lately I’ve found myself reading more history than fiction. What keeps pulling me back isn’t the history itself. It’s the timeless lessons about how thoughtful leaders make decisions when the stakes are highest and every option appears unattractive. I recently finished One Minute…
Oakmark Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, for the quarter, but outperformed since inception. At the sector level, the largest contributors to performance were industrials and financials, while information technology and energy were the largest det…
Oakmark Select Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, for the quarter, but outperformed since inception. At the sector level, the health care and consumer staples were the largest contributors to performance, while information technology and energy were the l…
Oakmark Global Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the MSCI World Index, for the quarter, but outperformed since inception. At the sector level, the largest contributors to performance were health care and information technology, while communication services and energy were …
Oakmark Global Select Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the MSCI World Index, for the quarter and since inception. At the sector level, the largest contributors to performance were health care and consumer staples, while consumer discretionary and information technology were the …
Oakmark International Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the MSCI World ex USA Index, for the quarter, but outperformed since inception. At the sector level, industrials and financials were the largest contributors to performance. No sectors detracted from performance. Geographica…
Oakmark International Small Cap Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index (net), for the quarter. At the sector level, information technology and industrials were the largest contributors to performance, while consumer staples and materials were the largest de…
Oakmark Equity and Income Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the 60% S&P 500 / 40% Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, for the quarter, but outperformed since inception. At the sector level for the equity portfolio, the largest contributors to performance were health care and consume…
When Sticky Gets Tricky
When Sticky Gets Tricky The inflation situation 30 Jun 2026 Webcasts Register to watch Renée Kaesler, Chief of Staff, International, and Kevin Osten, CFA, Client Portfolio Manager, as they discuss persistent inflation, rate dynamics, and the Federal Reserve’s evolving policy chal…
#515: Are Prediction Markets Going Mainstream Again?, & More
Is the boom in prediction markets structural or the result of momentary catalysts? Hosted across the US, Canada, and Mexico, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is the latest test. The notional volume of prediction markets hit an all-time high of $13 billion, or ~$675 billion at an annual ra…
You Are What You Deplete
You Are What You Deplete Are oil reserves covering up a bigger problem? 26 Jun 2026 Newsletter Ignoring the diagnosis doesn’t change the diagnosis. -Common Sense Low on energy? It’s not just you, it’s the global economy too! Well, sort of. You can still fill up your car, and gaso…
A Guide To Stablecoins: Multi-Collateral-Backed Stablecoins—DAI, USDS
This article focuses on the stablecoin category called “Multi-Collateral-Backed Stablecoins” and delves into how reserves are managed, how yield and incentives are distributed, how accessible and integrated the tokens are, and how governance and compliance influence their resilie…
The Cyclical Overearning Trap
The Cyclical Overearning Trap The hidden risk of buying cyclical stocks at peak earnings June 25, 2026 GQG Research Key Takeaways Investors have tended to repeatedly mistake cyclical peak earnings for durable earning power, especially in industries like semiconductors, and in doi…
Some Of The Smartest World Cup Bets Weren't In Sportsbooks | The Brainstorm 137
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Sam, and Nick explore the future of prediction markets, cutting-edge medical AI, and the surprising power of global events to reshape financialization. You’ll discover how the World Cup has catapulted prediction markets into the spotlight…
Where Does the Market Turn Next?
Where Does the Market Turn Next? Market concentration, AI enthusiasm, and the case for defensives 23 Jun 2026 Webcasts What could the market be missing right now? Watch GQG Partners’ Sid Jain, Deputy Portfolio Manager, and Ash Naidu, Head of Wholesale Australia, as they discuss t…
Where Could Market Leadership Come From Next?
Where Could Market Leadership Come From Next? 23 Jun 2026 In the News Views and opinions are expressed as of 23 June 2026. There may be additional risks associated with international and emerging markets investing involving foreign, economic, political, monetary, and/or legal fac…
Partnering with Probook: AI for the Trades
Partnering with Probook: AI for the Trades George, Lewis, Ben and their team are powering home service businesses across the country, automating operations from office to doorstep. By Konstantine Buhler Published June 23, 2026 Ben, George and Lewis. There’s no substitute for auth…
SpaceX IPO, Anthropic Fable 5, And Roku | The Brainstorm EP 136
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Sam, and Nick explore how SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) could revolutionize the space and satellite industries, with Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar vision focusing on Starlink satellites and AI orbital data centers. They discuss the…
Betting On The Unconventional With Draper Associates’ Andy Tang
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton and Chase Prather host Andy Tang, partner at Draper Associates, to discuss how venture capital is evolving alongside AI, deep tech, and shifting market dynamics. Andy reflects on his 20-year investing career, the growing importance of AI-nativ…
The One Stock Reshaping Emerging Markets
The One Stock Reshaping Emerging Markets Has AI changed EM investing? 17 Jun 2026 Newsletter Watch Josh Snyder, CFA, Global Investment Strategist, as he unpacks the rise of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and why its weight now…
Christopher Golda and Grey Baker Join YC as General Partners
We're excited to announce that Christopher Golda and Grey Baker are joining Y Combinator as General Partners. Chris and Grey have both been Visiting Partners at YC, where they've already made a big impact working closely with founders across multiple batches. Now, as General Part…
#514: SpaceXAI Launches, & More
In its heavily anticipated initial public offering (IPO), SpaceX issued $75 billion worth of new shares the largest IPO of all time. Appreciating to more than $2 trillion in equity market cap, a lofty valuation relative to backward-looking financials, investors have focused on it…
Diana Hu Is YC's Newest Managing Partner
We're thrilled to announce that Diana Hu has been promoted to Managing Partner at Y Combinator. Diana first came through YC as a founder. She co-founded Escher Reality (S17), an augmented reality backend that was acquired by Niantic in 2018. Diana returned to YC in 2021 as a Visi…
No Country for Old Buffets
No Country for Old Buffets What happens when AI charges by the bite? 10 Jun 2026 Newsletter Go to any local buffet and you’re almost certain to find at least one guy who is trying to get his entire quota in during that one meal. -Google Search If you lived in the US during …
Apple WWDC, Siri AI, And SpaceX Data Centers | The Brainstorm EP 135
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett and Nick discuss Apple's latest AI strategy announced at the 2026 WWDC event, including a major Siri upgrade. They explore how Apple's integration of Gemini models and on-device capabilities could transform Siri into a deeply personal AI c…
Podcast: Capital Allocators – Contrarian Quality
Podcast: Capital Allocators – Contrarian Quality Chairman and CIO Rajiv Jain shares how he is defining forward-looking quality in a crowded AI trade 09 Jun 2026 In the News CIO Rajiv Jain joins the Capital Allocators podcast to unpack the principles behind his investment approach…
Capital Allocators: Contrarian Quality
Capital Allocators: Contrarian Quality Chairman and CIO Rajiv Jain shares how he is defining forward-looking quality in a crowded AI trade 09 Jun 2026 In the News CIO Rajiv Jain joins the Capital Allocators podcast to unpack the principles behind his investment approach, from def…
#513: Kalshi Launches Perpetuals As Robinhood’s Rothera Exchange Goes Live, & More
Kalshi's launch of perpetual futures marks a watershed moment for the structure of the US crypto market. For the first time, US investors can access a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated perpetual contract, a product that has dominated international crypto tradi…
Booming Jobs Report, Plummeting Market: What's Going On? | ITK With Cathie Wood
In this month's "In The Know," ARK Invest CEO and CIO Cathie Wood makes the case that the economy is entering boom territory. Her framework: productivity (not the Phillips curve) is driving this cycle, inflation breaks to the downside and could go negative this year, new Federal …
Don’t Die: Humanity’s Future With Bryan Johnson
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton, Cathie Wood, and Charlie Roberts sit down with Bryan Johnson, founder of Blueprint and creator of Braintree. They explore his pursuit of extending human life and the broader philosophical shift toward valuing existence itself. Bryan shares th…
SpaceX And Blue Origin’s ‘Boom’ | The Brainstorm EP 134
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam are joined by Daniel Maguire to discuss Blue Origin's recent rocket explosion, which has sparked a pivotal discussion on the future of space launch dominance and AI infrastructure investments. They explore how industry giants…
#512: Blue Origin Explosion Highlights Launch Capacity Constraints In Race To The Moon, & More
Last week, ahead of its fourth mission, Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket exploded during a test fire at its launch site in Florida. The explosion severely damaged Launch Complex 36, Blue Origin’s only operational orbital launch pad for New Glenn. While the company is building addit…
Listen to the Market
Listen to the Market Kalshi’s new American Power Index takes the question every cable segment fights over (who is really winning the contest for power in Washington) and answers it with a single number. By Alfred Lin and Abhishek Malani Published June 1, 2026 I’ve always be…
What Quantum Means For Bitcoin’s Future
In this episode of Bitcoin Brainstorm, Rod Roudi is joined by Cathie Wood, Adam Back, Hunter Beast, Rob Hamilton, Ren Crypto Fish, and David Puell for a deep discussion on quantum computing and its implications for Bitcoin. The group examines the technical, financial, and governa…
SpaceX IPO Story Is Bigger Than Rockets | The Brainstorm EP 133
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam are joined by Daniel Maguire and Tasha Keeney to discuss the expected June 12th initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX. SpaceX’s recently filed S-1 revealed a significant opportunity across launch, Starlink, AI compute, and …
What in the World?!
What in the World?! Weekly takes on macro stories and market trends shaping the investment world 28 May 2026 Newsletter 28 May 2026 The Market’s Turkey Problem Is this market more fragile than it appears? A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher; every day confirms to its…
#511: Anthropic Is Paying $1.25 Billion Per Month To Access SpaceX’s Compute Capacity, & More
Anthropic paying SpaceX, longevity research including GLP-1s, AI's first autonomous mathematical breakthrough, and Anthropic's announcement about investing in special purpose vehicles.
All Systems Nominal – Nominal Spotlight
All Systems Nominal By Harry Spitzer Published May 21, 2026 How a former Navy officer’s will to serve is shaping the future of hardware development Although Cameron McCord wasn’t himself present at Edwards Air Force Base, what was about to transpire that May 2025 day in the Mojav…
Quantum Risk And Bitcoin: Preparing For A Post-Quantum World
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton is joined by David Puell, Nic Carter, and Alex Pruden to examine the potential risks quantum computing poses to Bitcoin. The group explores how advances in quantum technology could compromise cryptographic security, what a “broken” Bitcoin sys…
The Longevity Shift: Valuing The Extension Of Healthy Human Life
Our ability to quantify biological aging has improved markedly. Functional performance metrics, molecular biomarkers, multiomics data, and continuous digital signals now can measure what clinicians once inferred almost entirely from chronological age. These tools do not imply tha…
Prof G Markets: The One-Way Bet on CapEx
Prof G Markets: The One-Way Bet on CapEx Why we believe stronger fundamentals and CapEx are reshaping the investment case for emerging markets 20 May 2026 In the News Sid Jain, Deputy Portfolio Manager, provides an update on emerging markets and explains why we believe the CapEx …
Hyperliquid And SpaceX Synthetic Trading | The Brainstorm EP 132
Hyperliquid is revolutionizing global markets with its innovative blockchain, facilitating $3 trillion in annual volume and rivaling giants like Binance. In this episode, Lorenzo Valente reveals how hyperliquid's cutting-edge technology and products like perpetual futures are dem…
A disciplined approach to value in fixed income
Highlights Harris | Oakmark’s value-driven fixed income approach seeks to deliver durable, risk aware outcomes for clients by focusing on what ultimately matters: underlying credit strength. Rather than chasing yield or timing macro shifts, the team applies deep, bottom-up resear…
AI, Space, and the IPO Boom
AI, Space, and the IPO Boom A look at three potential market-defining public debuts 21 May 2026 Webcasts Can these IPOs live up to the hype? Register to watch Ben Larsen, CFA, Client Portfolio Manager, and Geoff Doyle, Senior Director, Business Development, as they examine the po…
#510: SpaceX Targets Starship Flight Test 12 Ahead Of Expected IPO Filing This Week, & More
This week, SpaceX is targeting its twelfth Starship flight test, debuting its next-generation Starship (V3) and Super Heavy booster as well as upgraded Raptor engines and a redesigned Starbase launch pad. The test comes amid reports that SpaceX could file its prospectus as soon a…
SpaceX And Anthropic Partnership | The Brainstorm EP 131
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Frank and Sam explore the groundbreaking deal between SpaceX and Anthropic, focusing on the implications for AI compute infrastructure, space-based data centers, and the economics behind data centers.
U.S. equities: Volatility creates opportunity
In this recent video, Portfolio Manager Michael Nicolas discusses how AI fears have driven sharp selloffs across software—but history suggests broad narratives often miss the nuance. With stock dispersion reaching extremes last seen during COVID, we see a familiar setup: indiscri…
International equities: Surprising market shifts
Tony Coniaris, Co-CIO International Equities, shares insights on the surprising shifts in the market, the dramatic impact of AI innovation, and how global events shaped portfolio performance during the first quarter of 2026. This material is not intended to be a recommendation or…
#509: Shopify Is Building The Operating System For Agentic Commerce, & More
Last week, Shopify reported another strong quarter, with Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) increasing 35% year-over-year and surpassing $100 billion, while revenue increased 34%. Although investors focused on softer-than-expected near-term guidance, specifically revenue growth at a …
AI Ascent 2026
AI Ascent 2026 AI Ascent IV was our biggest and best year yet. By Team Sequoia Published May 8, 2026 On April 20, we hosted our fourth annual AI Ascent in San Francisco, bringing together more than 150 leading founders and researchers in AI, including Demis Hassabis, Andrej Karpa…
A 30-Year Pattern Reversed: Inflation & AI Outlook | ITK With Cathie Wood
In this month's "In The Know," ARK Invest CEO/CIO Cathie Wood lays out a framework where we believe inflation surprises lower (not higher), the dollar rallies (not crashes), the rolling recession ends, AI drives structural deflation the bond market is only starting to price, and …
From Binance To Beyond: CZ Predicts Crypto’s Next Phase
In this episode of FYI, Lorenzo Valente sits down with ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and Changpeng Zhao (CZ), founder of Binance, to examine his journey from early life in China to building the world’s largest crypto exchange. CZ shares how Binance scaled rapidly, the regulatory cha…
Megacap Recap | The Brainstorm EP 130
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam offer a comprehensive analysis of mega-cap tech companies, focusing on CapEx trends, AI integration, user engagement, and market demand. They discuss Meta's AI strategies, cloud spending, and the evolving landscape of digital…
#508: Robinhood Is Handing Customers And Investors A 'Gold'en Opportunity, & More
Last week, Robinhood reported first-quarter results with softer-than-expected transaction revenues, the result of weak trading activity. In our view, the more important story was and is Gold, Robinhood's $5 per month subscription tier and—increasingly—the gateway to its ecosystem…
Standard Intelligence: Training General Intelligence in Pixel Space
Standard Intelligence: Training General Intelligence in Pixel Space By Sonya Huang Published April 30, 2026 The future of useful agents may begin not with text, but with pixels. Could pixels hold the keys to training useful agents? The race to scale language models — and the agen…
Bloomberg’s Insight: Mispriced Risks and Hidden Opportunities
Bloomberg’s Insight: Mispriced Risks and Hidden Opportunities Lessons from the Iran Conflict 30 Apr 2026 In the News From disruptions in energy logistics to ripple effects on technology and capital markets, markets may be underestimating the broader implications of the Iran confl…
MVP 2026 Stock Contest
Real investing involves the risk of permanent loss of capital. The securities mentioned are not an actual portfolio and are not being offered for investment as a model. Figures cited are as of date of publication and can change over time. Miller Value Partners undertakes no oblig…
$60 Billion SpaceX Cursor Deal? | The Brainstorm EP 129
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam explore how AI is reshaping technology, from coding to consumer devices, and how SpaceX's acquisition of Cursor at a $60 billion valuation could redefine the future of technology. They delve into the strategic layers of AI, r…
Stationary Energy Storage Could Become The Backbone Of The Modern Grid
Surging demand from AI data centers and the gradual electrification of transportation are adding pressure to the US grid, but the solution might already exist. ARK's research suggests that stationary energy storage, paired with existing underutilized generation, could unlock late…
Bitcoin’s Setup Looks Increasingly Compelling
Bill Miller IV answered questions on our recent MVP LIVE call about his current perspective on Bitcoin and related topics. Key Takeaways Constructive fundamental backdrop: The investment case for Bitcoin remains supported by persistent fiscal deficits and its role as a potential …
#507: A New Executive Order Is The Latest Catalyst Clearing The Path For Psychedelic Therapies, & More
On April 18, President Trump signed an Executive Order directing the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to issue Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers (CNPVs) to psychedelic drugs with Breakthrough Therapy designation, a mechanism that can compress FDA review timelines f…
The Set-up for Small & Mid Caps
Key takeaways: Value leadership is broadening: Value stocks—especially small and mid caps—have significantly outperformed across market caps and continue to lead in down markets. Market valuations remain elevated: Despite volatility, overall market multiples have re-expanded and …
Familiar Macro, Different Market Set-up
Bill Miller IV on the Current Market Read Bill’s current market letter: Feels Like 2022 But Isn’t Key Takeaways 2022 parallel—but better backdrop: Geopolitics are hitting growth again, but inflation is much lower today, leaving the economy in a stronger position. Grow…
Partnering with Ineffable Intelligence: A Superlearner for the Era of Experience
Partnering with Ineffable Intelligence: A Superlearner for the Era of Experience By Sonya Huang and Alfred Lin Published April 27, 2026 David Silver is racing to build AI’s next chapter with an RL ‘superlearner.’ What does it mean to build a mind that is not a c…
The DeFi Quarterly: Q1 2026
The DeFi Quarterly Q1 2026 report includes sections on stablecoins, RWAs, tokenization, network and application economics, decentralized exchanges, lending protocols, HIP-3 markets, and market pulse.
The Token Economy: AI Infrastructure And The Future Of Compute
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton and Charles Roberts sit down with Michael Stewart of M12, Microsoft’s venture fund, to examine how AI is reshaping software, infrastructure, and investment strategy. Michael explains how M12 identifies emerging signals across the AI ecosystem,…
Prediction Markets: The Potential Multi‑Trillion Dollar Asset Class Hiding In Plain Sight
In a world where trust in information is breaking down, prediction markets offer a model for truth discovery backed by capital, not opinion. Beyond their early traction in sports, we believe predication markets’ real potential will come from their instantiation as the future of f…
Verifying Humanity In An AI World | The Brainstorm EP 128
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam explore the emerging landscape of digital identity verification, focusing on World ID and its implications for online security, business models, and advertising. They discuss the technical challenges, regulatory hurdles, and …
#506: Technology Giants Are Accelerating The Convergence Between AI And Biology, & More
Some of the world's largest technology companies are making substantial moves into the life sciences space through acquisitions, platform launches, partnerships, and board appointments that are signaling the deepening convergence between AI and biology. In our view, relative to a…
The Bitcoin Quarterly: Q1 2026
The Bitcoin Quarterly Q1 2026 report includes market summary, on-chain activity and technicals, ETFs, Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), derivatives, liquidity, and macroeconomics.
Mythos And AI Safety | The Brainstorm EP 127
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam explore the latest developments in AI models like Mythos, the strategic moves of companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta, and the future of social networks in an AI-driven world. They discuss the implications of AI safety,…
Partnering with Auctor
Partnering with Auctor: AI Autopilot for Software Implementation By Julien Bek Published April 15, 2026 Matt, Will and Sky. F or every dollar spent on software, six are spent on services . Why? Because buying enterprise software is easy. Implementing it is hard, and still leans h…
Dire Straits
Dire Straits Navigating 2026: A turbulent echo of 2022 17 Apr 2026 CIO Perspectives PDF “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” -George Santayana 1 Key Takeaways The closure of the Strait of Hormuz underscores the fragility of global energy markets, drivi…
Dotcom on Steroids: Part V
Dotcom on Steroids: Part V Too big to permit 15 Apr 2026 GQG Research PDF Key Takeaways The rapid expansion of AI-focused mega data centers is fueling community backlash over resource consumption, leading to delays, regulatory challenges, and escalating costs that threaten AIR…
Feels Like 2022 But Isn’t
Liz Goodier · Feels Like 2022 But Isnt – Bill Miller IV The first quarter was a weak one across markets, as both equities and bonds pulled back – the S&P 500 fell -4.35%, US investment grade bonds were off -0.05% and high yield declined -0.50%. The market texture was remini…
#505: Patent Cliffs And Pipeline Gaps Are Driving A Structural Bid For Biotech, & More
Biopharma mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are heating up. In March alone, biopharma companies announced ten acquisitions worth ~$31.5 billion, including two deals exceeding $5 billion each in upfront payments.
Value and Small-Cap Outperformance Accelerates
Liz Goodier · Value and Small-Cap Outperformance Accelerates – Dan Lysik The year started with further market broadening, favoring lower valuation and smaller market capitalization equities. The Value outperformance cycle that began last year has largely gone unnoticed by m…
April 9, 2026 — In The Know With Cathie Wood
On the April episode of ITK, ARK CEO/CIO Cathie Wood dives into the unexpected divergence between the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), revealing that while consumer inflation seems to be slowing, producer prices are rising, excluding food and energy. Thi…
SpaceX To The Moon | The Brainstorm EP 126
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam explore the transformative impact of public and private space initiatives, focusing on how NASA's missions and SpaceX's innovations are accelerating progress toward lunar bases and Mars colonies. Discover the economic implica…
Harshita Arora Joins YC as General Partner
We're thrilled to announce that Harshita Arora is joining Y Combinator as a General Partner. Harshita has been a Visiting Partner at YC since the Summer 2025 batch, making her the youngest visiting partner in YC's history. Harshita discovered coding at 13, dropped out of school a…
Harris | Oakmark Announces Investment Team and Leadership Updates
Harris | Oakmark announces investment and leadership team updates reflective of the firm’s ongoing commitment to a disciplined, team-based value investing approach and long-term planning. “Thoughtful leadership development and long-term planning are hallmarks of a well-governed f…
Kalshi Beats Consensus | The Brainstorm EP 125
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Nick and Sam are joined by Nicole Kagan, Head of Research at Kalshi. They discuss how prediction markets could revolutionize risk management across every industry you can imagine. From macroeconomic trends to cultural phenomena, she's uncovering…
It Takes Two to TACO
It Takes Two to TACO The Middle East conflict and global supply disruptions 02 Apr 2026 Webcasts Register to watch Alex Hoy, CFA, Senior Director and Client Portfolio Manager, and Josh Snyder, CFA, Global Investment Strategist, as they examine the evolving impact of the war in th…
From Hierarchy to Intelligence
From Hierarchy to Intelligence By Jack Dorsey and Roelof Botha Published March 31, 2026 At Sequoia, we see that speed is the best predictor of start-up success. Most companies are focused on AI as a productivity enhancer. Few are focused on the potential of AI to change how we wo…