Letters · Memos · Substack
Letters, memos, interviews, and curated posts from Wall Street gurus and crypto whales. Updated daily.
Foundations: Market Structure & What The Heck Just Happened
2011-2026 is special. Our latest fifteen-year block, the S&P 500 has delivered a 12.09% annualized real total return with a dividend contribution of only 1.76%. That dividend contribution is at the 1 st percentile across 145 years of every conceivable 15-year block. Anti-dilutive…
Trading Post July 30, 2026
All buys and additions to positions, no sells. I am preparing a post on Microsoft, Meta and the others, pending the earnings and filings today and tomorrow. There is a ton of material. Lots of accounting maneuvers and poor earnings quality on display. In the interest of time let&…
The Age Of Free Food Delivery: Manna Air Delivery With Bobby Healy
In this episode of FYI, Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire sit down with Bobby Healy, founder and CEO of Manna, to examine the rapidly expanding drone delivery market. Bobby explains how Manna’s autonomous aircraft can deliver food and other goods within minutes, why its hot-swap ar…
Jeffrey Gundlach on the Fed Talk is Cheap CNBC
Jeffrey Gundlach interview/webcast/note from DoubleLine (2026). Click to open on doubleline.com.
SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 + Kimi K3 Freakout | The Brainstorm 142
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Tasha Keeney, Nicholas Grous, and Brett Winton uncover how SpaceX's latest Starship test flight is revolutionizing space travel, slashing launch costs, and how this potentially unlocks new commercial opportunities. Plus, a deep dive into AI’s ra…
Debt is the Bet
Debt is the Bet What happens when debt gets more expensive? 29 Jul 2026 Newsletter I’m the king of debt. I’m great with debt. Nobody knows debt better than me. -Donald Trump 1 A few weeks ago, we discussed the ongoing “rates debate” in terms of whether the new Federal Reserve cha…
#518: Tesla Remained Patient On Robotaxi And Optimus While Its AI Ambitions Grew With Megapod, & More
During its second-quarter earnings call last week, Tesla’s management was cautious in projecting the scaling of unsupervised robotaxis, noting that its service is live in seven cities and expanding one city at a time as it prioritizes safety.
Cyera and Oasis: Stronger Together
Cyera and Oasis: Stronger Together Danny, Amit, Yotam, Tamar, Yonatan and their teams are joining forces to build a complete security platform for the age of AI. By Bogomil Balkansky and Doug Leone Published July 28, 2026 In 2021, before Oasis Security was even founded, I sat dow…
Short Thoughts July 24, 2026 - Offshore Insurers, Meet the Hyperscalers
This will indeed be a short thought, because I want the focus to be on this paper, “Private Credit’s State Backstop: How Private Equity Socializes Risk Through Insurers,” written by Andrew Granato and Prangal Drall . Private Credit State Backstop Granago Drall J…
America’s Open-Model Paradox
America’s Open-Model Paradox To Distill, or Not to Distill? By Dean Meyer and Konstantine Buhler Published July 24, 2026 To Distill, or Not to Distill? China increasingly supplies the models Western companies use to serve, train, and build AI. Qwen’s share of new open-model fine-…
Trading Post July 24, 2026 - 4 Shorts, 3 Longs
Today I bought a number of stocks and sold short a number of stocks. There are a good lot of them, so let’s get rolling. Read more
Why the case for value investing remains strong
For fifteen years, growth has dominated and value has faced real headwinds — leading many to conclude the discipline itself is outdated. We disagree. In this piece, we make the case that value investing hasn’t failed; it’s evolved. Read the full paper . This material …
Partnering with Etched: Building the Inference Machine
Partnering with Etched: Building the Inference Machine Gavin, Rob, Chris and the Etched team are building frontier clusters for inference, maximizing the intelligence per flop that humanity can consume. By Sonya Huang and Abhishek Malani Published July 23, 2026 Inference is on th…
Oakmark Capital Gain Tax Estimates
Capital gain distributions will be paid to shareholders of record as of Wednesday, December 09, 2026. Important dates to note are as follows: Record date: December 09, 2026 Ex-dividend date: December 10, 2026 Pay date: December 11, 2026 Please note that the 2026 capital gain dist…
Trading Post July 23, 2026 - 3 Stock Buys & the BIS Weighs in on AI's Rampant Circular Financing
Globally, there is a very popular trade, the Momentum Pair Trade , where one arm is going long the cohort of most positive momentum stocks while also mercilessly shorting stocks with the most negative momentum . This has been a winning trade across the most popular type of hedge …
Can China’s Kimi K3 Beat OpenAI, Anthropic, And Grok? | The Brainstorm 141
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Sam and Nick are joined by Frank Downing to discuss the shifting future of AI models. Most AI companies are focusing on smarter models, but the real game-changer may be how efficiently we run them — and how that shifts market power. When the big…
Schrödinger’s Market
Schrödinger’s Market Energy scarcity, tech euphoria, and opportunity amid the market’s contradictions 22 Jul 2026 CIO Perspectives “If a man never contradicts himself, the reason must be that he virtually never says anything at all.” -Erwin Schrödinger Key Takeaways M…
Jeffrey Gundlach Hope is a Poor Investment Strategy Fox Business
Jeffrey Gundlach interview/webcast/note from DoubleLine (2026). Click to open on doubleline.com.
Refinery Crack Spreads Hit New Highs
Refinery Crack Spreads Hit New Highs Are energy profits heating up? 22 Jul 2026 Newsletter Watch Josh Snyder, CFA, Global Investment Strategist, as he explains how crack spreads measure the profitability of turning crude oil into gasoline and diesel. He explores why record-high s…
Smokin’ Crack…Spreads!
Smokin’ Crack…Spreads! Are energy profits heating up? 22 Jul 2026 Newsletter Watch Josh Snyder, CFA, Global Investment Strategist, as he explains how crack spreads measure the profitability of turning crude oil into gasoline and diesel. He explores why record-high spreads could s…
The DeFi Quarterly: Q2 2026
The DeFi Quarterly Q2 2026 report includes sections on stablecoins, RWAs, tokenization, network and application economics, decentralized exchanges, lending protocols, prediction market growth against other crypto primitives, and market pulse.
#517: Prediction Markets Are Moving Beyond Sports, & More
Last week, Kalshi reinforced the case we made in our most recent article, “Prediction Markets: The Potential Multi Trillion Dollar Asset Class Hiding In Plain Sight.” Prediction markets represent a new layer of global financial infrastructure that we believe is likely to enhance …
Trading Post July 17, 2026 Plus Netflix & What's Up with the VIX
Netflix Netflix has fallen over the last year, closing yesterday at $74 after peaking at $134 June of 2025. Netflix reported earnings after yesterday’s close, and it has traded down dramatically today. This is against a longer-term backdrop where NFLX stock (Yellow), has be…
The Bitcoin Quarterly: Q2 2026
The Bitcoin Quarterly Q2 2026 report includes market summary, on-chain activity and technicals, ETFs, Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), derivatives, liquidity, and macroeconomics.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): ARK's Stock Stories
AMD had nearly zero server CPU market share in 2017. By Q1 2026, they controlled 46% of server CPU revenue. Frank Downing, ARK's Director of Research, AI and Cloud, breaks down why AMD is now running the same playbook against NVIDIA in AI accelerators.
Partnering with Bunkerhill Health: AI Agents that Improve Patient Outcomes
Partnering with Bunkerhill Health: AI Agents that Improve Patient Outcomes Nish Khandwala and David Eng are building the AI agent platform to serve every function across the health system: clinical, operational, and administrative. By Alfred Lin Published July 16, 2026 David and …
There’s a New Sheriff in Town
The second quarter saw the S&P 500 advance 15.2% after its first-quarter pullback, leaving the index up 10.2% year-to-date. More than 80% of the S&P 500’s return this year has come from ten AI beneficiaries, representing exceptionally thin market leadership within the i…
Finding Value in a Momentum Market
As the Iran War moved towards a peace settlement, the marketplace celebrated by rushing back into longer duration equities. During Q2, momentum stocks led the equity market with one of the factor’s strongest quarterly returns, up more than 40%! As we highlighted in previous lette…
Partnering with Sable: Closing the Diffusion Gap
Partnering with Sable: Closing the Diffusion Gap Nim, Leon, Linda and Itamar are building an AI employee powered by real-time computer use and vision. By Shaun Maguire Published July 16, 2026 Leon, Nim, Linda and Itamar. The frontier of AI is moving at a pace most of the economy …
The Falling Cost Of Entrepreneurship
The cost of starting a business has declined in three distinct waves. First was the shift from offline to online commerce, which eliminated geography as a constraint. Second was the emergence of companies like Shopify, which bundled payments, logistics, and capital into a unified…
How Businesses Can Gamify Loyalty With Lucra's Dylan Robbins
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton hosts Dylan Robbins, founder and CEO of Lucra Sports, to discuss how white-label gamification is reshaping brand loyalty. Dylan traces Lucra's evolution from a peer-to-peer sports betting app built at Stanford Business School into an enterpris…
What Is The Best AI Model In 2026? | The Brainstorm 140
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Sam, and Nick are joined by Frank Downing to break down how OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and X are competing on performance, pricing, and deployment strategy as the AI market gets more efficient. Frank Downing explains why the economics of AI…
Short Thoughts July 15, 2026 PYPL/IBM/HCA/More
PayPal Buyout Offer Privately held payments firm Stripe, and Advent, a PE firm, are offering $60.50/share for portfolio company PayPal (PYPL), which closed at $47.37 today. The bid is at 1.21x IV15 and simply too low. This validates the value in PayPal, and I believe the bid will…
The Great Rates Debate
The Great Rates Debate Could the market be calling the Fed’s next move? 15 Jul 2026 Newsletter Since becoming a central banker, I have learned to mumble with great incoherence. If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said. -Alan Greenspan 1 Alan Greenspa…
#516: Operation Trailblazer: HHS Moves To Accelerate Drug Development As China Gains Ground, & More
Last month, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced Operation Trailblazer, including a coordinated package of reforms to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's (FDA’s) Investigational New Drug (IND) application process, intended to reduce the time and co…
Parallel Structure: The Pickup in Eddie Van Halen’s Frankenstrat on Van Halen’s First Album
Now for something different. A look back before looking forward again. Below is a picture of Eddie Van Halen in December 1977, with a decent representation of the famous Frankenstrat in an early white/black stripes incarnation. Maybe the very guitar and pickup that he used on Van…
Short & Thankful: 300
Thank you. Less than eight months into this new and intense adventure that is Cassandra Unchained, I am stunned and humbled by the unique, thoroughly enjoyable community of awesome people we have all created at CU. The Chats are lively and educational no matter the hour, and the …
[Abridged Version] Fannie, Freddie, Trump & the Housing Crisis
Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) have had some ups and downs since Trump’s election. The GSEs’ investors’ Sisyphean saga still comes down to the Senior Preferred Stock (SPS) Liquidation Preference (LP) , which grows largely in line with the Twins’ …
Fannie, Freddie, Trump & the Housing Crisis
The GSEs’ investors have seen enough unfulfilled grand promises over enough years to try the patience of Job. Since President Trump’s election to a second term, the shares of both GSEs have marched upward toward the mid-teens and then fallen dramatically to the mid-si…
Short Thoughts July 8, 2026 - NVDA, Neos, Hyperscalers, Jevons Paradox, and Compression
One of Cassandra Unchained’s subscribers received this missive in his email and asked me about it. I am not sure of the source. Rentability is not my claim, never has been. Depreciation is not a bet on when a chip stops working. It is the recovery of capitalized sunk cost o…
Did Tesla Just Release The “Perfect" Car? | The Brainstorm 139
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett and Sam are joined by Daniel Maguire to discuss Tesla’s Model Y L and what it could mean for family buyers and robotaxi strategy, plus Rocket Lab’s acquisition of Iridium and the growing importance of satellite bandwidth and launch capacit…
Trading Post July 8, 2026
The great tension in my valuation process is that a low multiple is not necessarily a value. Roots are important, and they are there, but my valuation process since the 1990s has not hinged on a 1940 version of value, apologies to Graham and Dodd. IV15 is the benchmark for me whe…
Wegovy, Wings, and Wishful Thinking
Wegovy, Wings, and Wishful Thinking What if the better signal is in the stands, not the forecast? 08 Jul 2026 Newsletter The reports of my death were an exaggeration. -Mark Twain 1 Few subjects over the last few years—other than AI—have made headlines and captured hearts and wais…
2Q 2026 GQG Investor Update
2Q 2026 GQG Investor Update 21 Jul 2026 Webcasts Views and opinions are expressed as of 21 July 2026. There may be additional risks associated with international and emerging markets investing involving foreign, economic, political, monetary, and/or legal factors. International i…
July 2026 Charity - Seva Foundation, Transforming Lives by Restoring Sight
https://www.seva.org Seva Foundation is one of the most effficient and effective charities I have ever come across. 90% of the world’s blind population lives in low income countries, and 90% of those are preventable or curable. The leading cause is cataracts, which can be f…
Punching Above Your Weight
Punching Above Your Weight When should markets fear what sports celebrate? 02 Jul 2026 Newsletter FIFA’s World Cup does strange things to people. It turns otherwise rational adults into patriotic statisticians, armed with selective arithmetic and a deep belief that one good resul…
This Jobs Report Screams Recession. Why We Disagree | ITK With Cathie Wood
In this month's "In The Know”, Cathie Wood breaks down Kevin Warsh’s five task forces to overhaul the Fed, from quieting the daily chatter of Fed governors to cross-checking distorted government statistics against private data. She explains why Trueflation’s real-time reading of …
Trading Post July 2, 2026
Yesterday I shorted one stock even though it was down a good amount because I think I have a pretty good idea how this resolves. I also added to five positions. This time may be different, but not nearly different enough. Read more
SpaceX Starfall And Apple Price Hikes | The Brainstorm 138
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Sam, and Nick discuss SpaceX’s Starfall, a new orbital delivery concept that could move cargo anywhere on Earth at extraordinary speed and open up new possibilities for military logistics and space manufacturing. The team also breaks down…
From Robotaxis To Humanoids: Why Embodied AI Represents An Order-Of-Magnitude Leap Into The Future
Today’s humanoid robot capability certainly seems limited relative to its potential. According to our research, humanoid systems could prove transformational for the modern workforce as they expand automation into labor-constrained sectors such as logistics, manufacturing, health…
The Intrinsic Value of Bitcoin
I recently had the opportunity to listen to a talk from an “A-list” entrepreneur in cybersecurity. Given his background and knowledge of cryptography, my hand was the first to shoot up at question time to ask about one of my favorite things — Bitcoin. “It has no intri…
Trading Post June 30, 2026
The ends of quarters are a time for window-dressing. Funds the world over try to make it look like their top positions have been the widely-acclaimed winners, and they sell down unpopular stocks that have recently underperformed. The June 30 th window dressing every year seems to…
The discipline to stay boring | U.S. equity market commentary 2Q 2026
“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” — Paul Samuelson, Nobel Prize winning economist Before writing these quarterly commentaries, I always reread my most recent editions. Unfortunately, much of wh…
Wrong in the right direction | International equity market commentary 2Q 2026
The second quarter reflected a continuation of what we saw in the first quarter in most respects. The one notable exception is oil. As the U.S. neared a compromise with Iran, oil prices have returned to within a few dollars per barrel of where they were before the war broke out. …
The certainty trap | Fixed income market commentary 2Q 2026
Lately I’ve found myself reading more history than fiction. What keeps pulling me back isn’t the history itself. It’s the timeless lessons about how thoughtful leaders make decisions when the stakes are highest and every option appears unattractive. I recently finished One Minute…
Oakmark Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, for the quarter, but outperformed since inception. At the sector level, the largest contributors to performance were industrials and financials, while information technology and energy were the largest det…
Oakmark Select Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, for the quarter, but outperformed since inception. At the sector level, the health care and consumer staples were the largest contributors to performance, while information technology and energy were the l…
Oakmark Global Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the MSCI World Index, for the quarter, but outperformed since inception. At the sector level, the largest contributors to performance were health care and information technology, while communication services and energy were …
Oakmark Global Select Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the MSCI World Index, for the quarter and since inception. At the sector level, the largest contributors to performance were health care and consumer staples, while consumer discretionary and information technology were the …
Oakmark International Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the MSCI World ex USA Index, for the quarter, but outperformed since inception. At the sector level, industrials and financials were the largest contributors to performance. No sectors detracted from performance. Geographica…
Oakmark International Small Cap Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index (net), for the quarter. At the sector level, information technology and industrials were the largest contributors to performance, while consumer staples and materials were the largest de…
Oakmark Equity and Income Fund: Second Quarter 2026
The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the 60% S&P 500 / 40% Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, for the quarter, but outperformed since inception. At the sector level for the equity portfolio, the largest contributors to performance were health care and consume…
When Sticky Gets Tricky
When Sticky Gets Tricky The inflation situation 30 Jun 2026 Webcasts Register to watch Renée Kaesler, Chief of Staff, International, and Kevin Osten, CFA, Client Portfolio Manager, as they discuss persistent inflation, rate dynamics, and the Federal Reserve’s evolving policy chal…
Foundations: My 1989
This past weekend, I came across a great interview of Marc Andreessen, conducted by his partner Ben Horowitz. Marc Andreessen Substack The true story -- as best I can remember -- of the origin of Mosaic and Netscape. Listen now 2 years ago · Marc Andreessen These are the two…
#515: Are Prediction Markets Going Mainstream Again?, & More
Is the boom in prediction markets structural or the result of momentary catalysts? Hosted across the US, Canada, and Mexico, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is the latest test. The notional volume of prediction markets hit an all-time high of $13 billion, or ~$675 billion at an annual ra…
You Are What You Deplete
You Are What You Deplete Are oil reserves covering up a bigger problem? 26 Jun 2026 Newsletter Ignoring the diagnosis doesn’t change the diagnosis. -Common Sense Low on energy? It’s not just you, it’s the global economy too! Well, sort of. You can still fill up your car, and gaso…
[Abridged] lululemon athletica (LULU): An Ode to Bad Management & The Politics of Skin-Tight Leggings
Potentially, never have shareholders suffered so long through so many own goals. There were the “Who is John Galt” shopping bags in 2011, which ticked off their customer base of liberal 25-45 year-old women. In 2013, the flagship skin-tight yoga pants were found to be…
A Guide To Stablecoins: Multi-Collateral-Backed Stablecoins—DAI, USDS
This article focuses on the stablecoin category called “Multi-Collateral-Backed Stablecoins” and delves into how reserves are managed, how yield and incentives are distributed, how accessible and integrated the tokens are, and how governance and compliance influence their resilie…
Trading Post June 25, 2026
Hong Kong stocks are falling hard as the chip narrative pulls capital from Hong Kong and pushes it into South Korea and Japan. In addition to momentum chasers, there are dedicated Asian stock funds that can easily re-allocate. This is clear in the charts of the Hang Seng , Japane…
The Cyclical Overearning Trap
The Cyclical Overearning Trap The hidden risk of buying cyclical stocks at peak earnings June 25, 2026 GQG Research Key Takeaways Investors have tended to repeatedly mistake cyclical peak earnings for durable earning power, especially in industries like semiconductors, and in doi…
lululemon athletica (LULU): Where is John Galt?
lululemon athletica, inc. (LULU) is in crisis, a state in which it has found itself repeatedly over the years. Potentially, never have shareholders suffered management fumbling its way into so many own goals. LULU Crisis #1 The first own goal, in 2011, certainly seemed a one-off,…
Some Of The Smartest World Cup Bets Weren't In Sportsbooks | The Brainstorm 137
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Sam, and Nick explore the future of prediction markets, cutting-edge medical AI, and the surprising power of global events to reshape financialization. You’ll discover how the World Cup has catapulted prediction markets into the spotlight…
Where Does the Market Turn Next?
Where Does the Market Turn Next? Market concentration, AI enthusiasm, and the case for defensives 23 Jun 2026 Webcasts What could the market be missing right now? Watch GQG Partners’ Sid Jain, Deputy Portfolio Manager, and Ash Naidu, Head of Wholesale Australia, as they discuss t…
Where Could Market Leadership Come From Next?
Where Could Market Leadership Come From Next? 23 Jun 2026 In the News Views and opinions are expressed as of 23 June 2026. There may be additional risks associated with international and emerging markets investing involving foreign, economic, political, monetary, and/or legal fac…
Partnering with Probook: AI for the Trades
Partnering with Probook: AI for the Trades George, Lewis, Ben and their team are powering home service businesses across the country, automating operations from office to doorstep. By Konstantine Buhler Published June 23, 2026 Ben, George and Lewis. There’s no substitute for auth…
Jeffrey Gundlach and Felix Zulauf the Second Inning of a Major Shift
Jeffrey Gundlach interview/webcast/note from DoubleLine (2026). Click to open on doubleline.com.
Trading Post June 18, 2026
This is essentially dollar cost averaging to reduce average price as an investment falls. It is a perfectly reasonable method with a well-understood investment. As are dividend reinvestment programs. All that stuff works! My more stringent approach is to wait until a stock has fa…
SpaceX IPO, Anthropic Fable 5, And Roku | The Brainstorm EP 136
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Sam, and Nick explore how SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) could revolutionize the space and satellite industries, with Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar vision focusing on Starlink satellites and AI orbital data centers. They discuss the…
Jeffrey Gundlach on Kevin Warsh and a New Era at the Fed CNBC
Jeffrey Gundlach interview/webcast/note from DoubleLine (2026). Click to open on doubleline.com.
Betting On The Unconventional With Draper Associates’ Andy Tang
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton and Chase Prather host Andy Tang, partner at Draper Associates, to discuss how venture capital is evolving alongside AI, deep tech, and shifting market dynamics. Andy reflects on his 20-year investing career, the growing importance of AI-nativ…
The One Stock Reshaping Emerging Markets
The One Stock Reshaping Emerging Markets Has AI changed EM investing? 17 Jun 2026 Newsletter Watch Josh Snyder, CFA, Global Investment Strategist, as he unpacks the rise of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and why its weight now…
Trading Post June 16, 2026
Today, I added to positions. All these positions are essentially full positions, and I added incrementally to each. I certainly refer you to the Trading Post June 15, 2026 , as late last night I updated and expanded on it to give a more full account of the reason for the trade. T…
Christopher Golda and Grey Baker Join YC as General Partners
We're excited to announce that Christopher Golda and Grey Baker are joining Y Combinator as General Partners. Chris and Grey have both been Visiting Partners at YC, where they've already made a big impact working closely with founders across multiple batches. Now, as General Part…
June 2026 Charity of the Month
For the month of June, I have chosen a non-profit effort in which I am involved but is too small in scope and nature to post here. It is also not suitable for a broad plea for donation. Therefore, I will not name it. This is, however, a terrific opportunity to make clear my plea …
#514: SpaceXAI Launches, & More
In its heavily anticipated initial public offering (IPO), SpaceX issued $75 billion worth of new shares the largest IPO of all time. Appreciating to more than $2 trillion in equity market cap, a lofty valuation relative to backward-looking financials, investors have focused on it…
Trading Post June 15, 2026
Talk about a dog of a stock, now under $48 from $226 early last year. During one of the greatest stock market bull runs of all time. The current price is a 10-year low, and over the last 18 months, the stock has gapped down more than 3% eight times and more than 10% three times. …
Gundlach Unlocked Positioning for Higher Rates Persistent Inflation and Rate Hikes
Jeffrey Gundlach interview/webcast/note from DoubleLine (2026). Click to open on doubleline.com.
Trading Post June 12, 2026
The market continues to punish the stocks of large, well-established businesses with significant owners earnings, little debt, and large buybacks, which are accretive to intrinsic value per share at current levels. It is not hard to find these at less than 10x earnings, whether g…
Diana Hu Is YC's Newest Managing Partner
We're thrilled to announce that Diana Hu has been promoted to Managing Partner at Y Combinator. Diana first came through YC as a founder. She co-founded Escher Reality (S17), an augmented reality backend that was acquired by Niantic in 2018. Diana returned to YC in 2021 as a Visi…
No Country for Old Buffets
No Country for Old Buffets What happens when AI charges by the bite? 10 Jun 2026 Newsletter Go to any local buffet and you’re almost certain to find at least one guy who is trying to get his entire quota in during that one meal. -Google Search If you lived in the US during …
Apple WWDC, Siri AI, And SpaceX Data Centers | The Brainstorm EP 135
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett and Nick discuss Apple's latest AI strategy announced at the 2026 WWDC event, including a major Siri upgrade. They explore how Apple's integration of Gemini models and on-device capabilities could transform Siri into a deeply personal AI c…
Podcast: Capital Allocators – Contrarian Quality
Podcast: Capital Allocators – Contrarian Quality Chairman and CIO Rajiv Jain shares how he is defining forward-looking quality in a crowded AI trade 09 Jun 2026 In the News CIO Rajiv Jain joins the Capital Allocators podcast to unpack the principles behind his investment approach…
Capital Allocators: Contrarian Quality
Capital Allocators: Contrarian Quality Chairman and CIO Rajiv Jain shares how he is defining forward-looking quality in a crowded AI trade 09 Jun 2026 In the News CIO Rajiv Jain joins the Capital Allocators podcast to unpack the principles behind his investment approach, from def…
Trading Post June 8, 2026
Some stocks are backed by businesses so good that the time to buy is defined by a simple, recurring rule. Samsung Electronics is the belle of the ball these days. Just last year, however, it traded extensively at tangible book value. When Samsung Electronics stock hits tangible b…
#513: Kalshi Launches Perpetuals As Robinhood’s Rothera Exchange Goes Live, & More
Kalshi's launch of perpetual futures marks a watershed moment for the structure of the US crypto market. For the first time, US investors can access a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated perpetual contract, a product that has dominated international crypto tradi…
Trading Post June 5, 2026
The lululemon athletica (LULU) earnings call was uninspiring as expected. That was interim co-CEOs defined. No new information. Gross margins fell 330 basis points (bps), mostly tariffs at -380 bps offset by +100 bps of cost cutting, then marked down b…-40 bps of markdowns.…
Booming Jobs Report, Plummeting Market: What's Going On? | ITK With Cathie Wood
In this month's "In The Know," ARK Invest CEO and CIO Cathie Wood makes the case that the economy is entering boom territory. Her framework: productivity (not the Phillips curve) is driving this cycle, inflation breaks to the downside and could go negative this year, new Federal …
Don’t Die: Humanity’s Future With Bryan Johnson
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton, Cathie Wood, and Charlie Roberts sit down with Bryan Johnson, founder of Blueprint and creator of Braintree. They explore his pursuit of extending human life and the broader philosophical shift toward valuing existence itself. Bryan shares th…
SpaceX And Blue Origin’s ‘Boom’ | The Brainstorm EP 134
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam are joined by Daniel Maguire to discuss Blue Origin's recent rocket explosion, which has sparked a pivotal discussion on the future of space launch dominance and AI infrastructure investments. They explore how industry giants…
MEGA Trading Post/Short Thoughts Mash-Up June 2, 2026
The wonderful people that Cassandra Unchained’s subscriber Chat discussions have gathered is unique among discussion boards in my experience. The elevated tenor and many expert opinions, as well as the gentle treatment of each other, reminds me of the early days on techstoc…
#512: Blue Origin Explosion Highlights Launch Capacity Constraints In Race To The Moon, & More
Last week, ahead of its fourth mission, Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket exploded during a test fire at its launch site in Florida. The explosion severely damaged Launch Complex 36, Blue Origin’s only operational orbital launch pad for New Glenn. While the company is building addit…
Listen to the Market
Listen to the Market Kalshi’s new American Power Index takes the question every cable segment fights over (who is really winning the contest for power in Washington) and answers it with a single number. By Alfred Lin and Abhishek Malani Published June 1, 2026 I’ve always be…
Short Thoughts May 29, 2026
Part IV of the Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars is coming along nicely. In light of the news today about Apollo’s $38 billion debt raise for Google’s TPUs (not NVIDIA’s GPUs) for Anthropic, I have decided to pre-release one visual from Part IV. No expla…
[Abridged] Software & Payments Stocks Part II: Productivity Tools and Cybersecurity
Since Part 1, I added four names – Synopsys (SNPS), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), JFrog (FROG) and Samsara (IOT) – so the Cassandra Unchained software and payments universe is now 50 stocks. First a trading update: Yesterday I rolled my SOXX and QQQ puts at a debit, …
Software & Payments Stocks Part II: Productivity Tools and Cybersecurity
Since Part 1, I added four names – Synopsys (SNPS), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), JFrog (FROG) and Samsara (IOT) – so the Cassandra Unchained software and payments universe is now 50 stocks, the SW50. I tugged around the publishing order, so this Part 2 will cover Pr…
What Quantum Means For Bitcoin’s Future
In this episode of Bitcoin Brainstorm, Rod Roudi is joined by Cathie Wood, Adam Back, Hunter Beast, Rob Hamilton, Ren Crypto Fish, and David Puell for a deep discussion on quantum computing and its implications for Bitcoin. The group examines the technical, financial, and governa…
SpaceX IPO Story Is Bigger Than Rockets | The Brainstorm EP 133
In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Nick and Sam are joined by Daniel Maguire and Tasha Keeney to discuss the expected June 12th initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX. SpaceX’s recently filed S-1 revealed a significant opportunity across launch, Starlink, AI compute, and …
What in the World?!
What in the World?! Weekly takes on macro stories and market trends shaping the investment world 28 May 2026 Newsletter 28 May 2026 The Market’s Turkey Problem Is this market more fragile than it appears? A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher; every day confirms to its…
#511: Anthropic Is Paying $1.25 Billion Per Month To Access SpaceX’s Compute Capacity, & More
Anthropic paying SpaceX, longevity research including GLP-1s, AI's first autonomous mathematical breakthrough, and Anthropic's announcement about investing in special purpose vehicles.
Short Thoughts May 25, 2026
My whole life, patterns have spoken to me. Not the patterns surrounding me while visiting the local fabric store with my Mom back in the 1970s. For some reason, those patterns screamed and filled my head with pressure. I could not wait to get outside. Kids growing up in 70s and e…
[Abridged] The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part III: Tracepalooza & the Bezzle
NVIDIA is benefitting from strong demand, but is selling into a concentrated set of buyers whose demand is being distorted by a training phase that will not last. Distorted demand is working like a bullwhip into NVIDIA’s own supply chain through custom supply commitments as…
The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part III: Tracepalooza & the Bezzle
“They are just flying empty airplanes around.” - Son NVIDIA is the North Star, Orion, the whole Milky Way. NVIDIA is benefitting from strong demand, but is selling into a concentrated set of buyers whose own demand is being distorted by a training and benchmarking pha…
Part 2 Letter to the Investment Committee on Private Equity
GMO Quarterly Letter (Jeremy Grantham et al.) on gmo.com. Click to read the full letter.
Part 1 What Barbarians Like to Take Private
GMO Quarterly Letter (Jeremy Grantham et al.) on gmo.com. Click to read the full letter.
All Systems Nominal – Nominal Spotlight
All Systems Nominal By Harry Spitzer Published May 21, 2026 How a former Navy officer’s will to serve is shaping the future of hardware development Although Cameron McCord wasn’t himself present at Edwards Air Force Base, what was about to transpire that May 2025 day in the Mojav…
Quantum Risk And Bitcoin: Preparing For A Post-Quantum World
In this episode of FYI, Brett Winton is joined by David Puell, Nic Carter, and Alex Pruden to examine the potential risks quantum computing poses to Bitcoin. The group explores how advances in quantum technology could compromise cryptographic security, what a “broken” Bitcoin sys…
The Longevity Shift: Valuing The Extension Of Healthy Human Life
Our ability to quantify biological aging has improved markedly. Functional performance metrics, molecular biomarkers, multiomics data, and continuous digital signals now can measure what clinicians once inferred almost entirely from chronological age. These tools do not imply tha…
Prof G Markets: The One-Way Bet on CapEx
Prof G Markets: The One-Way Bet on CapEx Why we believe stronger fundamentals and CapEx are reshaping the investment case for emerging markets 20 May 2026 In the News Sid Jain, Deputy Portfolio Manager, provides an update on emerging markets and explains why we believe the CapEx …
Hyperliquid And SpaceX Synthetic Trading | The Brainstorm EP 132
Hyperliquid is revolutionizing global markets with its innovative blockchain, facilitating $3 trillion in annual volume and rivaling giants like Binance. In this episode, Lorenzo Valente reveals how hyperliquid's cutting-edge technology and products like perpetual futures are dem…
A disciplined approach to value in fixed income
Highlights Harris | Oakmark’s value-driven fixed income approach seeks to deliver durable, risk aware outcomes for clients by focusing on what ultimately matters: underlying credit strength. Rather than chasing yield or timing macro shifts, the team applies deep, bottom-up resear…