Buffett Owns 27% of Occidental — Debt Paydown, Iran Tailwind, and a 3-Year Outlook

Berkshire Hathaway owns roughly 27% of Occidental Petroleum. OXY is up 37% YTD and has repaid $7.1 billion in debt. Where will the stock be in three years?

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) is a major oil and gas company with a market cap of roughly $56-59 billion. Shares are up more than 37% year-to-date. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway holds approximately 27%, signaling long-term conviction. A recent quarterly beat and the ongoing Iran conflict as an oil-price tailwind add to the bull case.

Three Core Strengths for Occidental

There are three reasons to view Occidental favorably right now. First, it has been aggressively paying down debt: management repaid $7.1 billion in principal, reducing the balance to $13.3 billion, with a $10 billion target ahead. Second, it pays a dividend -- recently yielding 1.6-1.9%. Third, valuation is reasonable: forward P/E at 12.6x sits slightly below the five-year average of 13.1x.

• Debt principal balance: $13.3B (target: $10.0B)
• Dividend yield: ~1.6-1.9%
• Forward P/E: 12.6x (below 5-yr avg of 13.1x)
• Berkshire Hathaway stake: ~27%

Buffett Owns 27% -- Smart Money Validated

Berkshire Hathaway's ~27% ownership stake in Occidental is not a trade -- it is long-term capital conviction. Buffett's position also locks up a meaningful float, which can provide downside support. The Berkshire stamp is particularly significant given its reputation for holding energy positions for years.

We have been repaying $7.1 billion of principal debt through May 5 and reducing principal debt to $13.3 billion, progressing toward our $10.0 billion milestone.

Occidental Q1 2026 Management Commentary

The Iran War: A Double-Edged Catalyst

The Iran conflict has been a tailwind for Occidental and energy peers by keeping oil prices elevated. However, a diplomatic resolution could cause a sharp oil price drop that hurts margins. That is the defining uncertainty for energy stocks. Historically, OXY's five-year average annual return is 20.2%, but its three-year and ten-year averages are below 0.5% -- volatility is a feature of this name, not a bug.

Three-Year Scenario: $75-76 at S&P 500 Pace

No one can forecast with certainty, but if Occidental tracks the S&P 500's ~10% annual average from a recent price of $56.80, the stock would reach roughly $75.60 in three years. Given that YTD gains already exceed 37%, there may be some consolidation ahead. For long-term holders, the key milestones to watch are the $10 billion debt target (expected in 2026-2027) and continued dividend growth.