#515: Are Prediction Markets Going Mainstream Again?, & More

Is the boom in prediction markets structural or the result of momentary catalysts? Hosted across the US, Canada, and Mexico, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is the latest test. The notional volume of prediction markets hit an all-time high of $13 billion, or ~$675 billion at an annual rate, during the first full week of group play ended June 15. Year-to-date, the broader market is on pace for notional volume of ~$330 billion at an annual rate, more than quadrupling the $71 billion in 2025. In the early days of prediction markets, the 2024 US national election caused the initial spike. Now, the World Cup is the prime mover. Importantly, volume is ratcheting higher in the aftermath of each event.