SanDisk's ~4,000% rip lifts the average · names that appear in both the 2000 list and the 2026 list
The average 1-year return of the top 10 names in the Nasdaq 100 is 784%. In the year ending at the dotcom peak in March 2000, the same top-10 average was 622%. The data, compiled by BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky. By the headline number, today is hotter than the dotcom bubble.
The 2000 list and the 2026 list — overlapping names
The 2000 top-return list: MicroStrategy (now Strategy, MSTR), Qualcomm (QCOM), SanDisk (SNDK), Analog Devices (ADI), Lam Research (LRCX), Regeneron (REGN), Nvidia (NVDA), Cognizant (CTSH), Apple (AAPL), and Adobe (ADBE).
The 2026 list: SanDisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), Seagate (STX), Micron (MU), Intel (INTC), Lam Research (LRCX), AMD, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Applied Materials (AMAT).
SanDisk and Lam Research appear on both lists — a direct rhyme. Nvidia, Apple, and Adobe were 2000 winners and remain mega-cap tech today, but none sit in the current top-10. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) was the #1 software gainer in 2000; today it has been re-engineered into a Bitcoin proxy — same name, completely different driver.
What drives the 784% average — SanDisk's ~4,000% move
A key detail. The top-10 average is 784% for 2026 versus 622% for 2000. But the medians are flipped: 2026 median is 354%, 2000 median is 455%.
- Average: 2026 784% vs 2000 622% — 2026 higher
- Median: 2026 354% vs 2000 455% — 2000 higher
When the average runs well above the median, an extreme outlier is pulling the headline up. That outlier is SanDisk — the ~4,000% move skews the average. The bottom of the list is actually quieter than 2000.
Why memory and storage dominate the top
Six of the top 10 in 2026 are memory, storage, or semiconductor equipment names — SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate, Micron, Lam Research, Applied Materials. The driver is AI data-center build-out.
As GPUs absorb larger compute workloads, the infrastructure to store and move data scales nonlinearly. The 2000 boom centered on web, networking, chips, and storage. This boom centers on AI infrastructure, memory, data centers, and storage. The bottleneck shifted, and capital is chasing the new bottleneck.
Warner Bros. Discovery — the lone outlier
One name doesn't fit. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). The other nine cluster around AI infrastructure; WBD is a media M&A story — Netflix and Paramount Skydance are running an acquisition contest that drove the rally.
A non-AI name in the top 10 is itself a signal: this rally isn't a single-theme story.
What this says
The return-comparison is both a warning and a contrast. The 2000 dotcom top was led by names with weak revenue models. Today's top features Micron, Lam Research, Applied Materials — companies with real revenue and earnings.
AI infrastructure build-out is real, and the winners can be real. But the top winners already have a great deal of perfect execution priced into them.
Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG
