EARNINGS BRIEF

AMD Posts Longest 12-Day Win Streak in 21 Years — May 5 Earnings Are the Inflection Point

AMD extended its winning streak to 12 consecutive trading days — the longest in 21 years — fueled by TSMC's blowout earnings. Up roughly 40% from its year-to-date low, all eyes now turn to Q1 results on May 5 and the second-half launches of the MI450 and Helios platform as the next major catalysts.

Daniel Kim·April 24, 2026·6 min read

AI Summary

AMD surged to a 12-day consecutive winning streak — its longest in 21 years — following TSMC's earnings blowout, rebounding roughly 40% from its year-to-date low. The May 5 Q1 earnings report is the next inflection point; guidance of $9.8B (+32% YoY) appears achievable, though China export restrictions on the MI308 remain a near-term wildcard. The real structural catalysts are the second-half launches of the MI450 accelerator and Helios rack-scale platform, underpinned by a 1GW OpenAI data center deal and a 6GW GPU supply agreement with Meta — partnerships that could drive AMD's AI revenue into the tens of billions by 2027.

Semiconductor sector rallies on TSMC's earnings beat — MI450 and Helios second-half launches emerge as key catalysts

AMD (AMD) extended its winning streak to 12 consecutive trading days on April 16 (local time), riding the momentum from TSMC's Q1 earnings surprise. This marks the longest consecutive-day rally for the stock since 2005 — a 21-year record. Shares have rebounded approximately 40% from their year-to-date low and remain up more than 21% on a year-to-date basis.

AMD's foundry partner TSMC reported record-breaking Q1 results — revenue of $35.9 billion (+40.6% YoY) and net income growth of +58.3% — triggering a broad-based rally across the semiconductor sector. Markets interpreted TSMC's strong results as a direct demand signal for AMD's AI accelerators and server CPUs.

Data Centers: AMD's New Center of Gravity

AMD reported record Q4 2025 revenue of $10.3 billion (+34% YoY). Within that, the Data Center segment alone generated $5.4 billion — an all-time quarterly high. For full-year 2025, Data Center revenue reached $16.6 billion (+32%), representing 48% of total revenue of $34.6 billion.

It is achievable to sustain annual average growth of over 60% in AI-related data center revenue through 2026 to 2028.
Lisa Su, CEO of AMD

The broader context for this rally is a market re-rating of AMD — from a company seen merely as an AI beneficiary to one actively generating real, measurable AI revenue.

Q1 Guidance at $9.8B — May 5 Earnings Are the Pivotal Moment

AMD's Q1 2026 guidance calls for revenue of approximately $9.8 billion (+32% YoY) with a non-GAAP gross margin of 55%. While this reflects a modest sequential decline, year-over-year growth remains robust. The analyst consensus projects revenue of $9.84 billion with EPS growth of +33% YoY.

A key variable to watch is the impact of China export restrictions. Revenue from MI308 GPU sales to China is expected to drop sharply — from $390 million in Q4 to roughly $100 million in Q1. The critical question is how much of this headwind can be offset by growth in EPYC server CPUs and MI350 AI accelerators.

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon raised his price target to $365, noting that the market is significantly underappreciating the scale of AMD's partnership with Meta. The average analyst consensus price target stands in the $290–$291 range.

MI450 and Helios: The Real Second-Half Catalysts

Whether this rally proves to be a short-term momentum trade or the start of a structural uptrend will largely depend on AMD's second-half product launches. The company plans to begin shipping the MI450 AI accelerator and the Helios rack-scale platform starting in Q3. OpenAI is set to begin building a 1GW data center using MI450 chips in the second half of this year, while Meta has a GPU supply agreement in place totaling 6GW. AMD believes that by expanding its sales model from standalone chips to full rack-scale systems, its AI revenue could scale into the tens of billions of dollars by 2027.