Nokia Surges 140% YTD — Nvidia's $1B Bet Rebrands It as an AI Infrastructure Play
Nokia started as a paper mill in 1865. In 2026, it's one of the market's hottest AI infrastructure stocks — up 140% YTD after Nvidia's $1B strategic investment and a surge in AI data center optical network orders.
- Nokia stock surged 140% YTD in 2026, driven by Nvidia's $1B strategic investment in October 2025 and co-development of AI-RAN
- Q1 2026 results validated the thesis with AI/cloud sales up 49% and €1B in new optical network orders, prompting a full-year guidance raise
Nokia started life as a Finnish paper mill in 1865. In 2026, it has become one of the market's hottest AI infrastructure plays. Shares have surged roughly 140% year-to-date, climbing from around $6.50 at the start of the year to a 52-week high of $15.78 in May. The catalyst: Nvidia's $1 billion strategic investment in October 2025.
Nvidia's $1B Bet — Building AI-RAN Together
Nvidia purchased approximately a 3% stake in Nokia at $6.01 per share in October 2025. The partnership centers on AI-RAN — a system that combines AI workloads with wireless network infrastructure. T-Mobile has already signed on as the first commercial deployment partner, and the AI-RAN platform now counts 10 public customers including Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, SoftBank, and NTT Docomo. In May, Nokia opened an AI Networking Innovation Lab in Sunnyvale, California, alongside partners including AMD, Lenovo, Supermicro, and Keysight.
Q1 2026 Earnings — AI/Cloud Revenue +49%, €1B in New Cloud Orders
Q1 2026 results added more fuel to the rally. Revenue came in at €4.5 billion (+4% YoY), comparable operating profit jumped 54% to €281 million, and EPS rose to €0.05 from €0.03 — beating estimates by roughly 31%. The standout metric: sales to AI and cloud customers surged 49%, with €1 billion in new cloud orders booked in the quarter, largely for optical networking equipment inside AI data centers. The Optical Networks segment grew 20% in Q1 as hyperscalers rushed to build AI capacity. CEO Justin Hotard noted cloud giants are expected to spend more than $700 billion collectively on AI infrastructure.
Guidance Raised — Optical & IP Networks Targeting 18–20% Growth
Following the strong quarter, Nokia raised its full-year outlook. Network Infrastructure growth is now guided at 12–14%, while Optical and IP Networks are projected to grow 18–20%. Full-year operating profit guidance was lifted to €2.0–2.5 billion. Nokia also raised capex guidance to up to €1 billion to expand optical manufacturing capacity.
Related Stocks & ETFs
Nokia (NYSE: NOK) — AI-RAN + optical network infrastructure, Nvidia's strategic partner Ericsson (Nasdaq: ERIC) — Direct telecom equipment competitor, competing in same AI-RAN space Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) — Nokia's AI-RAN co-developer and $1B strategic investor IGN — iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (AI infrastructure and telecom tech exposure)
Frequently Asked Questions
Why has Nokia stock surged so dramatically?
The turning point was Nvidia's $1 billion strategic investment in October 2025, which repositioned Nokia as an AI infrastructure play. Q1 2026 earnings confirmed the thesis: AI/cloud sales surged 49% and full-year guidance was raised significantly.
What is AI-RAN?
AI-RAN (AI-Radio Access Network) combines AI compute workloads with wireless network infrastructure. Instead of treating the radio access network and AI processing as separate systems, AI-RAN lets base stations run AI tasks simultaneously, reducing latency and improving efficiency. Nokia and Nvidia are co-developing the platform.
Is Nokia still a buy after a 140% rally?
The AI data center optical networking demand surge and AI-RAN positioning are real and backed by strong Q1 results. However, the 140% YTD gain has significantly expanded the valuation. Investors should weigh the competitive risk from Ericsson and Samsung's network business against the still-growing opportunity.
What is the significance of SoftBank and NTT Docomo as customers?
Having major Asia-Pacific telecoms already on board signals that AI-RAN adoption is not limited to the US market. It also raises the possibility that Korean carriers (SK Telecom, KT, LGU+) could be next as they accelerate 5G AI infrastructure upgrades.
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