This Week: Nvidia Earnings Wednesday, Plus Bond Yields and Trump-Xi Fallout
After last week's broad-market decline, this week's focus turns to Nvidia's quarterly results (Wednesday), the 10-year yield above 4.5%, and lingering geopolitical uncertainty from the Trump-Xi summit.
- Nvidia's quarterly earnings on Wednesday are the week's standout event for the $5.7 trillion company
- Rising 10-year yields past 4.5% and post-Trump-Xi geopolitical uncertainty add complexity to a market already navigating an AI euphoria debate
Major indexes closed lower on Friday after an uneasy week. This week, Nvidia's earnings, bond yields, and lingering geopolitical uncertainty from the Trump-Xi summit will dominate.
The S&P 500 closed Friday down 1.2%, gaining just 0.1% on the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.5% Friday for a weekly loss of roughly 0.1%. The Dow Jones closed Friday down 1.1%, ending the week down 0.2%.
The catalyst on Friday was the 10-year yield firmly crossing 4.5%. Expect markets to keep refreshing that page this week.
The week's standout event: Nvidia earnings
Nvidia's quarterly results on Wednesday will dominate the week. The company just surpassed $5.7 trillion in market cap, reaffirming its place as the largest company in the world. Coming off CEO Jensen Huang's trip to China alongside President Trump, any commentary about dealmaking will be in focus.
We sense a marked apathy on this stock even among most big long-onlies — so the set-up for a good set of numbers and potentially positive guidance is there.
Tim Arcuri, UBS analyst
Earnings calendar
- Monday: Ryanair (budget airline)
- Wednesday: Nvidia (AI/semiconductors), Target (big-box retail)
- Thursday: Walmart (big-box retail)
- Friday: Booz Allen Hamilton (government consulting)
Economic calendar
Friday headlines the economic calendar with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment reading and inflation expectations survey. Services economy data from the New York Fed and Kansas City Fed arrives Monday and Friday, respectively.
Post-Trump-Xi geopolitical uncertainty, sticky inflation, and rising bond yields are all playing out at once. Nvidia's earnings will be the pivot point that determines which way the week turns.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most important market event this week?
Nvidia's quarterly earnings on Wednesday is the standout event. At $5.7 trillion in market cap — the world's largest company — Nvidia's results and guidance will set the tone for the semiconductor and AI trade.
Why does the 10-year yield crossing 4.5% matter?
Rising bond yields increase corporate borrowing costs and apply pressure to high-PE growth stock valuations. Above 4.5%, investors have a stronger incentive to rotate from equities into bonds, creating headwinds for the broader market.
Why are Target and Walmart earnings in focus?
These two retail giants are barometers for U.S. consumer spending. Their results will be critical for gauging how tariffs and inflation are affecting household expenditure.
What's the significance of Jensen Huang's trip to China?
Huang accompanied President Trump to China, raising speculation about potential relaxation of chip export controls or new deals. Any commentary from Nvidia management on China business will be closely watched.
What are Wall Street's expectations for Nvidia's earnings?
UBS analyst Tim Arcuri noted that many major long-only investors have adopted a "marked apathy" toward the stock recently, setting up a situation where strong numbers and positive guidance could produce an outsized positive reaction.
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