Q1 2026 13F Preview — The Gurus Who Made the Biggest Pivots

Filing deadline: May 15. Q1 2026 was the quarter that saw a dramatic sector rotation away from AI-led tech and into energy, materials, and defensives. Who saw it coming?

📌 This article previews portfolio changes based on Q4 2025 13F filings (submitted in February 2026). The Q1 2026 13F filing deadline is May 15, 2026 — actual Q1 position data will be available after that date.

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How Markets Moved in Q1

Before diving into the 13Fs, it's essential to understand the actual market scorecard for Q1 2026.

Energy +38.1% (S&P 500 Energy Sector), Basic Materials +10.5%, Utilities +7.7%. Meanwhile, tech and communication services — which had dominated from 2023 through 2025 — fell sharply behind. The dividend stock index posted +15.1%, its best quarter since 2022.

Tariff shocks, Iran conflict risk-on dynamics, and recession fears all converged simultaneously, crystallizing a clear narrative: "AI concentration unwind + defensives and real assets on the rise." This is the backdrop against which each guru's Q4 2025 positioning must be read.

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4 Gurus Who Made the Sharpest Pivots

1. Stanley Druckenmiller — "Tech Weighting at Multi-Year Low, Massive New Positions in Brazil and Financials"

Druckenmiller's directional shift in Q4 2025 was the most dramatic he has made in several years.

His tech weighting plunged from 13.8% to 9.43% — the lowest level since 2021. He fully exited META, ARM, and MongoDB. This was not a routine trim; it signals a structural change in conviction. (Biotech holding Natera accounts for the largest portfolio weight at ~13.6%; tech weighting is calculated independently.)

Where did the capital go:

The message is clear: "The AI dominance trade is over — rotating into financials, real assets, and emerging markets." Given that energy surged +38% and financials rallied strongly through Q1, this bet was directionally correct. The key question for the May filing is how aggressively he added to these positions in Q1.

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2. David Tepper — "Liquidated Most Positions, Kept Only Micron"

In Q4 2025, Tepper made a contrarian bet on AI memory semiconductors by surging his Micron (MU) stake by 250% (adding ~1.5M shares to his existing 5M shares). He trimmed NVDA by -10.5% and AMZN by -12.8%.

Then in March 2026, a market-rattling report emerged: Appaloosa had liquidated the majority of its portfolio. No official explanation was given, but the market has converged on three interpretations:

1. Tariff risk flight — Reducing exposure amid escalating U.S.-China tensions
2. Shift to macro positions — Moving from equities into macro derivatives strategies
3. Full strategy overhaul — Transitioning from long-only to a hedged portfolio structure

The May 13F is more than just a position disclosure. It's the next chapter — revealing where Tepper went after the liquidation.

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3. Quant Hedge Funds — "A Quiet Convergence on Biotech"

One of the most striking patterns in Q4 2025 13F data is the simultaneous increase in biotech exposure among quant funds including AQR, Two Sigma, and Renaissance Technologies.

Biotech position buildups — such as Druckenmiller's concentrated positions in Natera and Insmed — are confirmed by disclosed filings. Based on aggregated multi-source data, quant fund biotech exposure increased an average of 15–20% quarter-over-quarter (figures may vary by fund-specific calculation methodology). Inflows of 10–12% into small-cap energy and defense names were also detected.

This reflects a strategy shift away from mega-cap tech concentration — "expressing leverage through undervalued sectors rather than derivatives." The fact that multiple models converged on the same signal suggests this is a structural shift, not noise.

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4. Large Active Funds — "Purged Big Tech, Kept Only the Compounders"

A common pattern emerged in Q4 2025 across large active funds including Pershing Square (Ackman), Viking Global, and Elliott Management.

Full exits from "high-fliers" such as CMG (Chipotle), NFLX, FLUT, and PM — while retaining or adding to AMZN, META, MSFT, and GOOGL exclusively.

The logic is straightforward. As AI transitions from a competitive moat for a select few into a broad infrastructure layer across industries, the thesis holds that only "compounders capable of leveraging AI for sustained earnings growth" will survive. The strategy: sell overvalued growth names, concentrate into AI-enabled compounders.

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Sector Rotation Summary

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May 15 Will Answer These Questions

Against a Q1 2026 scorecard of Energy +38% and Basic Materials +10%, the filing will reveal whether each guru had already positioned for that move — or whether they reshuffled once again during Q1.

Did Druckenmiller's Brazil and financials bets pay off? What positions did Tepper build after his mass liquidation? And how did Buffett's apparent AI short fare amid the sharp Nasdaq selloff in Q1?

The InteliView Guru Tracker will update in real time starting with early filers on May 10.