GURU REPORT

Howard Marks Called It 'No Sale' Market — While Holding $311M in SMH Puts

Marks' Q4 2025 13F stands against 43 months of bullish consensus. $7.03B portfolio, energy as top holding, $311M SMH puts, and every new buy in value sectors.

Justin·April 21, 2026·4 min read

AI Summary

On April 20, 2026, Howard Marks told CNBC it was 'not a market on sale' — and his Q4 2025 13F confirms he has been positioning accordingly. Of his $7.03B portfolio across 172 positions, the largest holding is natural gas producer EXE at $558M, with zero AI or mega-cap tech in the top five. Oaktree also holds $311M in SMH semiconductor ETF puts as a tail-risk hedge. All four new positions initiated in Q4 — led by Viper Energy (VNOM) at ~$240M — are in energy, telecom, or value/special-situation sectors. With 23 trims and 8 full exits in the same quarter, the capital flow is unambiguous: Marks has spent 43 months not missing the rally, but deliberately building counter-positions and waiting for panic-driven bargains.

A veteran investor positioned squarely against 43 months of bullish momentum. His words and his capital are pointing in exactly the same direction.

One Sentence He Left on April 20

For the most part, this is not a market on sale. Bargains are extremely rare.
Howard Marks, CNBC Squawk Box, April 20, 2026

Those were Howard Marks' words on CNBC's Squawk Box. The man who called the dot-com bubble before it burst, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital, and a cycle reader who has published market memos for over two decades — his single sentence stopped the market in its tracks once again.

Marks elaborated: "Bargains come when people are panicking, desperate to get out, and willing to accept inadequate prices. That is not what we're seeing today."

He then cited one specific figure: "The optimists have basically been winning for the past 43 months."

Then You Open His 13F

His words became memos, and his memos became positions. Open Oaktree's Q4 2025 13F — filed in February 2026 — and what Marks said verbally aligns precisely with what he built in his portfolio.

Total portfolio value: $7.03 billion across 172 positions. Top holdings are as follows:

Expand Energy (EXE): $558.68M, ~7.95%. Natural gas company.
TORM (TRMD): $527M. Tanker company.
AngloGold Ashanti (AU): $328M. Gold miner.
Garrett Motion (GTX): $298M. Restructuring special situation.
Indivior (INDV): $255M. Pharmaceutical value play.

No AI companies. No mega-cap tech. Not a single name that led the 43-month rally appears in his top holdings.

One line stands out above the rest: SMH (Semiconductor ETF) put options, $311.5M, 865,000 shares. The very sector he described as "expensive but not crazy" carries a substantial hedge.

Even His New Buys Went Straight to Value

Marks initiated four new positions in Q4. It's not that he bought nothing — but the names tell the story.

His largest new buy was Viper Energy (VNOM) at approximately $240M — an oil and gas mineral rights company. Next was Telephone and Data Systems (TDS) — a regional telecom carrier. The remaining two positions also fall squarely in value and special-situation territory.

Not one sector that drove the 43-month rally made the cut. Every new position added is entirely consistent with his existing portfolio themes.

Meanwhile, in the same quarter, he trimmed 23 positions and fully exited 8. Even TORM was cut by 34.9% versus Q3. Four positions added, 31 reduced or closed. The direction of capital flows is unambiguous.

Mapping It Out Chronologically

When you align what Marks said publicly with what his 13F recorded, the message becomes unmistakably clear.

October 2025: On AI, he said, "It's elevated but not crazy. Expensive doesn't mean it falls tomorrow." Two months later, December, his 13F showed a portfolio with no AI exposure in the top holdings — and a $311M SMH put position alongside it.

March 2026: On private credit, he wrote that while systemic risk was absent, "some managers took in capital too fast and deployed it at too-low standards, setting the stage for a correction." One month later, April 20, he called it a "market not on sale."

One thread runs through all four statements: Marks never declares a bubble. He never announces a short. Instead, he quietly builds counter-positions and waits.

He bets on energy and commodities for inflation and supply tightness exposure, and hedges AI-tech tail risk via SMH puts. He is not trying to beat the market. He is trying to survive it.

On the Other Side of a 43-Month Rally

The picture is striking when you step back. Since October 2022, over 43 months, the S&P 500 surpassed the 7,100 level and the Nasdaq logged 13 consecutive days of gains. AI, mega-cap tech, and semiconductors led that charge.

Over those same 43 months, Oaktree held puts on semiconductors, maintained energy as its largest sector exposure, and directed every new purchase into value plays. This was not a failure to participate in the rally — it was a deliberate, active build of counter-positioning.

When Marks says "there are no bargains," his capital explains why those words carry weight. It doesn't mean he was wrong for 43 months. It means he was waiting for 43 months.

Bargains Come From Panic

Marks has never written "sell now" in a single memo — not 43 months ago, not today. He does not chase timing. He holds his positions patiently until the risk-reward tilts in his favor, keeping his words and his capital aligned at all times.

When he said "market not on sale" on April 20, his 13F already showed $311M in SMH puts, and all four Q4 new buys were in energy, telecom, and value sectors.

The takeaway for investors is straightforward: Don't hunt for bargains — wait for them. And build a portfolio today that can withstand the wait. Bargains emerge from panic, and panic cannot be predicted.

Marks left one more line in that interview:

The things that have the greatest impact on the investment world are the ones that are not foreseen.
Howard Marks

He doesn't forecast. He prepares.

Data Reference

Oaktree Capital Management LP Q4 2025 SEC 13F filing (filed February 17, 2026). Portfolio value $7.03B, 172 positions. Top holdings: EXE $558.68M (7.95%), TRMD $527.29M, AU $328.16M, GTX $297.96M, INDV $255.06M. SMH put options $311.5M, 865,000 shares. Q4 new positions: 4 (VNOM, TDS, and 2 others); trimmed: 23; fully exited: 8. CNBC Squawk Box interview, April 20, 2026.