Cerebras (CBRS) IPO: $185 Offer, $363 Opening Projected — Near 2x Gap on Day One

Cerebras (CBRS) began trading on Nasdaq on May 14. IPO price: $185. Odaily projects the opening price at $363 — a 96% gap-up over the offer price. Effectively doubling on day one.

The offer price was raised three times: from $115–$125 to $150–$160 and finally set at $185. Demand exceeded supply by 20x with total buy orders exceeding $10B. Proceeds of $5.55B make this the largest US tech IPO since Arm's $4.87B offering in 2023.

"The center of gravity in AI is shifting from training to inference"

Odaily's projected $363 opening is not just IPO hype — it's the market's official declaration. Nvidia holds near-monopoly in AI training with GPUs. Cerebras targets the next stage: the inference step where trained models generate real-world outputs at scale.

WSE-3 Architecture — The Case for Inference Speed

The entire wafer is a single chip. Four trillion transistors, 900,000 AI cores, and 44GB of on-chip SRAM in one package. Memory bandwidth hits 21 PB/s — approximately 7,000x the H100. The low-latency SRAM structure eliminates inter-chip data movement, removing the bottleneck entirely.

OpenAI chose this chip for a reason. Inference latency for GPT models is reportedly cut by up to 15x. The goal: faster ChatGPT response times and large-scale concurrent throughput.

OpenAI Contract Structure — Two Layers

• Layer 1: 250 MW annual computing supply for 3 years (2026–2028), $10B+
• Layer 2 (added April): Long-term supply contract up to $30B with 1.25 GW expansion option
• OpenAI provided a $1B loan and warrants to purchase 33M+ shares

The customer is simultaneously the lender and a potential shareholder. This structure drove 2025 revenue of $513M — up 76% year-over-year. Amazon has recently joined as a new customer.

214x PSR — Historically Extreme

At Odaily's projected opening of $363, market cap would reach roughly $110B. Price-to-Sales ratio: 214x. Nvidia currently trades at ~25x PSR. Cerebras starts trading at more than 8x that multiple.

Zero tolerance for disappointment. The valuation is only justified if the OpenAI contract executes as planned, new customers materialize, and revenue accelerates sharply. Any deviation could trigger significant correction.

Three Key Risks

• Customer concentration: Amazon recently joined, but 86% of revenue remains tied to OpenAI and UAE-related entities. If OpenAI accelerates in-house chip development or pivots to AMD, the revenue base is immediately at risk.
• Sam Altman conflict of interest: Early personal investor in Cerebras while serving as OpenAI CEO — a party on both sides of the contract. Formally disclosed as a risk factor in the S-1.
• Financial structure: OpenAI's $1B loan underpins profitability. Cerebras's financial stability is directly tied to OpenAI's own financial health.

Cerebras first attempted to list in 2024 but withdrew in October 2025 after failing CFIUS review due to UAE investor G42's stake. After resolving that, it completed its IPO. The harder task now: proving the valuation with actual results from a projected day-one gap of 96%.