Robinhood CEO: "Prediction Markets Will Hit Trillions" — Launching Rothera Exchange to Take Direct Control

9 billion contracts traded, 1 million customers, April volume tracking $3B — and "only 2 or 3 of dozens of exchanges will survive"

On Robinhood's (HOOD) Q1 earnings call, CEO Vlad Tenev didn't hide his ambition for prediction markets.

Prediction markets will eventually grow into a multi-trillion-dollar annual market.

Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood

And he laid out, in detail, how Robinhood plans to sit at the center of it.

First, What Is a Prediction Market?

A prediction market is a market for betting on the outcome of future events — elections, sporting matches, economic indicators, even stock movements — packaged as contracts that can be bought and sold. Get it right, get paid; get it wrong, lose. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi pioneered the category. Robinhood entered it a year ago and already became the largest retail broker in the space.

In one year, more than 1 million Robinhood customers traded over 9 billion contracts. Q1 set a record quarter for prediction markets. April volume is tracking $3 billion — the second-highest monthly volume on record.

Today a Middleman — In Q2, Robinhood Opens Its Own Exchange

Today Robinhood operates as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) — listing third-party exchange contracts (like Kalshi's) as a broker. It has no pricing power and can't choose which contracts get listed.

That changes in Q2. Robinhood is launching the Rothera exchange — a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, structured as 45% Robinhood, 45% Susquehanna, and 10% MIAX. The key piece: it's a Designated Contract Market with CFTC licensing.

What Tenev means by vertical integration is concrete. Robinhood will directly decide which events get listed, how the pricing structure works, and how the user experience is designed.

"Of Dozens of Exchanges, Only 2 or 3 Will Survive"

Tenev's strongest statement was about the competitive landscape.

There won't be dozens of designated contract markets in the future.

Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood

He sees dozens of new exchanges going through the CFTC registration process, but views most as undifferentiated.

Real competitive advantage, in Tenev's view, comes from two things: an established large-scale customer base and structural economic advantages. Robinhood has 27 million funded accounts in the US. Susquehanna is one of the leading market makers in the asset class. Few competitors can replicate that combination on a short timeline.

Tenev expects the industry to consolidate in the coming years and intends Robinhood to be on the surviving side of that process.

Regulatory Risk and Content Diversification

US states are challenging prediction markets. The federal CFTC has jurisdiction, but whether states can also assert authority is the contested point. Some states are claiming their own.

Tenev acknowledged the tension but didn't back down. He maintained the position that state authority over a federally regulated product is unusual, and said the issue would be resolved through courts and regulatory channels.

On content, diversification is underway. The mix is expanding from elections and sporting events into politics, culture, and economic indicators. The strength of prediction markets is that there's always something to bet on.