Michael Burry: SanDisk Has Surpassed the Dot-Com Bubble—Nasdaq Leaders Now More Extreme Than 1999

SNDK 1-year return 3,960%—exceeds 1999 Qualcomm 2,620%… 'More extreme environment' warning

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Michael Burry has sounded the alarm again. This time, it's not GameStop. It's the entire Nasdaq.

On the 7th (local time), Burry shared data from BTIG and Bloomberg on X (Twitter).

The rally in top Nasdaq names right now is more extreme than the dot-com bubble peak

Michael Burry / X

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SanDisk has overtaken Qualcomm

During the 1999 dot-com bubble, Qualcomm posted the largest gain among all stocks. Its 52-week maximum return was 2,620%—an unprecedented figure at the time.

Burry pointed out that SNDK surged 3,960% over the 12-month period from May 2025 to May 2026, noting that 'SNDK is outpacing Qualcomm by 1,300 basis points.'

Interestingly, Burry also highlighted that SanDisk was the second-best performer in 1999, with a gain of 581%. That same stock has now broken the 1999 Qualcomm record by 1.5x some 26 years later.

The phenomenon extends beyond a single stock. In 1999, the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names averaged a 559% return, climbing to 622% in the 12 months leading up to the bubble peak in March 2000. Burry believes stocks exceeding these figures are now appearing.

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Is this the dot-com bubble, or something different?

The counterargument to Burry's warning is compelling. The core difference: earnings.

NVDA is forecast to post net income exceeding $120B for fiscal 2026. While the forward P/E is elevated at roughly 41x, it pales against Cisco's 200x P/E during the dot-com bubble. The tech sector's forward P/E stands at approximately 30x, below the dot-com peak of 50x.

The SOX semiconductor index surged 38% in April alone, marking its largest monthly gain since February 2000. On a 12-month basis, it's up 211%—the 6th-strongest performance since 1996. The top 5 periods all occurred between February and June 2000—the dot-com bubble peak.

Supply constraints present another distinction. During the dot-com bubble, internet companies proliferated far faster than demand. AI is the opposite: supply is constrained across critical inputs—computing capacity, memory, power, and advanced packaging.

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The real risk: capex returning to profit

Combined AI capex from the Big Four tech firms (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) is projected to reach $650B–$690B in 2026. This represents the largest corporate investment outside wartime mobilization in history.

If this capital converts to actual AI revenue, there's no problem. However, OpenAI generated $13B in 2025 revenue but faces difficulty reaching profitability by 2030, with expected cash burn of $17B in 2026 alone. The true risk emerges if capex-to-profit conversion lags market expectations.

Burry himself already holds put options on NVDA and Palantir. He's put his money where his mouth is.